我想這幾天大家最關心的財報公司就是APPLE了. APPLE(股票代號:AAPL)在財報之後重跌, 從原來的510塊左右, 一路跌到440塊的水平. 同時, 因為連日來股價的大幅下滑, 蘋果被石油公司Exxon Mobil重新趕上而失去了世界最大資本公司的地位, 在去年11/20的文章中, 我有提醒大家, 如果AAPL一但失守520的支撐, 很有機會直探420的價位水平, 如今離420也不遠了, 大家要多關注這一個支撐水平.

2011/10蘋果失去了重要領袖賈柏斯之後, 短短的一年多, 雖然中間仍靠著所謂後賈柏斯時代的光環和產品, 股價一路飆高到700點, 但是好景不常, 新高之後的拉回, 力道也是猛的驚人. 蘋果這過去一年的財報, 也有一半以上不如華爾街的預期, 再加上強勁的對手Sumsung不斷的瓜分其市場, APPLE似乎有些力不從心了. 相反於APPLE財報的不如預期, Sumsung最近的報告確出奇的好, profit成長了76%, 而且在亞洲重要國家的市場佔有率也拉大了與對手的距離. Galaxy產品線基本上是得到全面的勝利. 看來蘋果想要站回老大的地位, 所面臨的挑戰是一天比一天嚴峻.

高科技產業就是這樣, 以前人說”十年河東, 十年河西”, 在高科技的世界裡, 基本上是”十月河東, 十月河西”. 智慧型手機不過是這五年才開始流行, 但是回頭看看, Apple, HTC, Sumsung, 等等的公司在這五年內, 互相廝殺浮浮沉沉. 不但是在市場上競爭, 專利的官司也從來沒有停過, 也許都有風光過, 但是誰也搶不下這全部的江山. 我其實也不覺得Apple會就此一厥不振, 但是公司的一些改變和持續加強力度的創新是必要的. 看看這次財報後的Netflix(股票代號:NFLX), 兩年不到, 從300塊跌到50塊, 這兩天不也佔回一半的山頭了嗎?

 

A very quick and cool way to determine if a stock is reasonably valued or not.  

Price  = (Earning for next year / Required return ) + Present Value of Growth Opportunities

Simply solve for Present value of Growth Opportunities(PVGO)

While I would advice the average investor not to get too technical with the formula, I will give you my method of obtaining the variables.

Price is simply the current market price of the security being valued, the idea is market is somewhat efficient and accurate (feel free to insert your joke here, I do!)

(Earning for next year / Required return ) is the Value of a static no-growth firm; PVGO represents the market price of the hopes and the dreams and the aspirations for the firm to add value additionally to the assets and/or earning power that are already in place.

Earning for next year can be looked up from yahoo finance analyst estimate (again, feel free to insert your joke here!)

Required return is simply derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM)(Just bear with me for a minute).  For the market return, I use the Long term S&P 500 return of 9.6% (Hang on, not just yet), and for  risk free rate, I use 10 year Treasury, and the Beta from Yahoo Finance.  Plug the numbers into the variables of the formula to calculate the required return:  Required return = Risk free rate+ Beta *( Market Return-Risk free rate)

The drawback of this formula is the fact that it’s a rule of thumb.  Like any number crunching, I believe in GIGO, Garbage In Garbage Out.  Here are some of the possible situations of how the inputs can be flawed.

Earning estimate for next year could be skewed.  Inputs for CAPM are flawed, for example, what risk-free rate to choose, what is the market in market return, how many years should I regress the Beta, and should the Beta be levered to reflect the proper debt ratio?  What about cash hoard on balance sheet beyond the necessary reinvestment for growth and working capital and cap ex?

Those are all legitimate questions, but I don’t believe this is the time and place to get bogged down.  The idea is to determine quickly off the top of your head if the price of a stock is reasonably valued, and worth looking into.

For example:  Apple Inc. (股票代號: AAPL)

Next year estimated earning= $48.13 ( from Yahoo Finance)

Beta of AAPL=0.93 (from Yahoo Finance)

Market Return(3 years annualized S&P 500 Total Return)=10.87% (from Standard & Poor’s)

Risk Free Rate=1.91% (from Yahoo Finance, 10 years treasury)

Market Price of Apple Inc.= $527

PVGO of Apple= $527- ($48.13 / {0.0191+[0.93*(0.1087-0.0191)]})=$57.11

The future growth of Apple Inc. is worth about a mere 11% of its current stock price.

Oh Wait!  What about the more than $110 billion worth of cash, which translate to about an additional $117 per share and increasing, on its balance sheet?

The NO-Growth Apple based on this quick calculation is worth $587 per share and increasing by the minute.

People, please do a comparison to your beloved company, try adding an element of rationality into your investment process.

For comparison purpose, Google’s PVGO is $737.97-$358.14=$379.83;  approximately 51.5% of its current price.

The idea is that if a company’s growth does not pan out, the crash and burn will be relatively more substantial than that of Apple’s.

You should play around with high growth company such as Facebook and check for yourself how much did you pay for the hopes and dreams of the projected growth.

This is where you should start your investigation on whether the company’s future growth prospect as reflected by the market price is warranted, according to your own opinion based on facts and sound logic.

Good Investing.

 

 

雖然稱不上是蘋果迷, 但畢竟家裡還是有很多的蘋果產品, 而且每次他們的產品發佈會,我也總對他們有很大的期待, 看看一向以創新為主的蘋果還能給我們帶來什麼樣的驚喜。 但是, 在後賈柏斯時代的這一年多來, 創新,似乎是一個逐漸退色的名詞。 自從蘋果(股票代號:AAPL)在九月二十一日創下歷史性的新高以後, 一路大跌到$500美元關卡, 跌幅超過25%! 也跌破許多重要的技術支撐線像是最常用來看長期走勢的200日均線,正式步入空頭市場!

雖然說, 市場分析師預期蘋果的新手機iPhone 5 將可以是蘋果有史以來賣最好的手機,因為剛好是iPhone的大換機潮。 他們預期到2013年底時, 全球的銷售可望突破兩億支。 但是, 之後呢? 做為一個幾乎沒有偏見的人,我也常在關心除了蘋果以外的3C科技公司,像是Google(股票代號:GOOG)做的android 系統。 在android 4.0 發佈後, 我也先後購買了nexus 7 平板跟 nexus 4手機。 我必須很公平的說,Google的android系統在4.0之後有很大的進步, 他在蘋果一直引以為傲的 User Experience上做了非常大的躍進,順暢度幾乎一樣,Android 一直以來的致命傷, 在新版的android發佈後,已不復在。 這會讓一直以來蘋果有的超級優勢, 迅速的消失!!  當跟蘋果對打的幾家大公司(三星, 微軟,HTC, LG, Google)都在user experience 快速的趕上時, 蘋果的裹足不前, 會讓他們在不論是手機或是平板電腦的市佔率,銷售率,有很大的隱憂。

說回到對股價的影響, 不論這個隱憂最後是否成真, 投資人對市場的恐懼,一向都對股價有絕對性的影響。   蘋果在九月創下的歷史新高, 在我個人看來只能是投資人對賈柏斯生前最後參與到的iPhone 5 在這一年將會有的貢獻。 而一家少了有”前景”的公司, 將很難獲得投資人的青睞, 在下一年的產品發佈, 蘋果是否能展現創意, 持續的創造”前景”, 抑或是iPhone的持續改版, iPad 變 iPad mini, 將會是蘋果股價是否能更上一層樓的重點。

 

當大家都覺得SPX向下破底的時候, 最後的關頭, SPX勉強的守下的最後的防線, 有了一定程度的反彈. 我覺得目前看起來, 這還是比較屬於超賣之後的反彈, 基本上的向下趨勢不變, 圖中下面的K/D希望要有突破lower high的趨勢, 才比較有可能為一波較好的漲勢開頭. 基本上, 繼續注意市場對1350 – 1360支撐的反應來決定對策. 短期的阻力在1420-1430, 最大中期以上的阻力在1465 – 1475.

 

 

RUT來說, 上次跟大家分享的轉倉後, 他很給面子的回頭了一下, 守住了765上下的支撐, 如果這個支撐破了, 下一個支撐將會是730左右, 而下一個最大的阻力是在870上下.

 

 

 

 

另外一個值得大家注意的是最近跌很兇的AAPL, 勉強守住了520左右的支撐, 超賣之後有一些反彈, 值得關注12月份的走勢, 要小心的是, 如果一但跌破520的支撐, 下一個主要支撐就是要到420的附近了, 這中間的價差很大, 要小心操作.

彼克歐要去一個多禮拜的度假了, 如果你之前有來信問問題, 我會在這兩天回覆你, 但是之後的來信, 就要麻煩你等一等了. 美國股市也將在禮拜四休市, 禮拜五也會提早3小時關門, 交易時請注意.

在這裡先祝大家感恩節快樂!!

 

今天蘋果Apple(股票代號: AAPL)官方正正式宣佈,iPhone 5第一天預購超越2百萬隻,盤中就一直在注意蘋果是否能站上歷史新高七百元大關, 結果只差一點點, 收在$699.78。  不過在盤後馬上就突破$700。  去年iPhone 4S於24小時內,預訂數量是100萬支,而2010年的iPhone 4前24小時預訂數量為60萬支。  iPhone5 的兩百萬支預購應該可以算是幫投資者們打了一劑強心針。

 

完整新聞稿請見蘋果網站:

CUPERTINO, California—September 17, 2012—Apple® today announced pre-orders of its iPhone® 5 topped two million in just 24 hours, more than double the previous record of one million held by iPhone 4S. Demand for iPhone 5 exceeds the initial supply and while the majority of pre-orders will be delivered to customers on September 21, many are scheduled to be delivered in October. iPhone 5 is the thinnest and lightest iPhone ever, completely redesigned to feature a stunning new 4-inch Retina™ display; an Apple-designed A6 chip for blazing fast performance; and ultrafast wireless technology*—all while delivering even better battery life………

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