在北海道千歲機場照的

** 怎麼才渡了幾天假, 回來就覺得下個月的生活費又有著落了勒?! 呵, 人生真是美好.

 

** 複習之前分析(技術, 基本). 從上次分析後, 如果用買入多頭買權價差策略的人, 可以考慮只做短線找個好點先獲利出來, 也快到之前定的獲利一了; 其他用賣出賣權的, 權利金部分雖然不多, 但也應該有小賺一點. 再來需注意近期的短線小回調, 可考慮加碼再進.

 

 

 
CAT product demand is driven by global economic growth, construction activity, commodity prices, government spending on infrastructure, and end users’ access to capital.
It’s lagging currently, partly because of its relatively weak exposure to agriculture (drought depresses crops yield and heighten food price) compare to peer like Deere.  On the other hand, mining and energy exploration has been held back by lower commodity price.
I like CAT the business and company in general, it is definitely one of the best among its peer group.  But my enthusiasm for CAT is temporarily dampened due to Macro headwind.  (Short term skeptic, long term bull)

The revenue streams are strategically diversified, less than 30% is from North America, (the good recovering economy), revenue stream may continue to weaken, unless 1) spending on infrastructure, 2)urbanization, 3)mining, 4)construction, 5)Capital Ex Investment, pick up, which are entirely possible.  The reasons could include government stimulus spending, economy picking up around the world.
Revenue and Net Income have been increasing dramatically at least over the past 3 years, but Operating Cash flow has stayed relatively range bound.
This company operates on rather high leverage historically, and as a result the Return on Equity for last year has been spectacular.  The current ratio is 1.4 with about 40 billion of Total Debt, the company has raised more debt capital since last year, and the Total share outstanding has increased from 628 to 666 million shares.  The average nine years ROE has been about 33.89%, but that could be skewed because we went through the construction boom from housing and infrastructure both domestically and abroad, urbanization of emerging markets, and commodity boom for the past decade.  The company has nevertheless, demonstrated uncanny ability to meet obligations, as well as expectation of revenue and income growth.
Buffett once said, he would rather buy a great company at a fair price, then a fair company at a great price.  If we simply take the Net Income reported at face value, couple with the current consensus 5 year earning growth rate analysts predict, the fair value could be somewhere around $101.2/share.  Please proceed with caution and an appropriate margin of safety as always.
 

   
** 之前對這支有過一些分析, 由視頻可以對這個business有多一些了解;

卡特彼勒在2012 Fortune China世界500強中排第155名(公司簡單資料點這裡).

 

        先不論facebook當時剛上市時的估價是否太高或是太低, 慢慢的價錢會找到它自己的趨勢和自己的型態.  現在可以看到, 從之前的打底到現在有了一個小規模的突破, 填了之前的缺口, 近期很可能會有慢下或回調的情形. 分析上看來是會有一段較長時間一點的跳動盤整, 應該還不會這麼迅速的就通過上去. 近期可以關注一下, 考慮找個好的回調點做一個中短期性的投資或交易.

 

 ** 這是一家很多人沒太聽過, 但其實卻常常出現在我們生活中的一家大企業. 目前市值有約USD $55.74 Billions. 在今年2012前半年的下滑後, 又有了約四個月的打底. 整體來說, 還沒有出現大局多頭市場的形態, 但由之前的打底和當下的短線形態來看, 可能會有短線多頭的交易機會, 近期可以多多關注一下.

** 喜歡中長期的投資人,  可考慮賣出約$80~$85的賣權用來進部位. 可以考慮一個小波段約到第一目標$92平倉也可, 其餘(長期)部分到約第二獲利目標$105區再出.

** 相關基本面分析(quick fundamentals)

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