Einhorn Effect in May; Ackman Short in December

Prime Candidate for a Bear Put Spread! I wonder if Muddy Waters' Carson Block would chime in and join the big boys?

 

首先, 如果你忘記了之前的故事, 這裡先幫你複習一下, 這是一個不錯轉倉的例子, 希望大家經由我個人實戰分享中有所學習.

11/8時做了一個RUT weekly 765/760 bull put credit spread, 每組收取權利金55USD, 保證金 445USD.

11/15, 大盤數日下跌, 股價在到期日前一天接近履約價格, 決定轉倉, 我在11/15號的文章中有跟大家分享. 從765/760轉的下個月的745/740, 每組收取權利金20USD.

12/3, 大盤經過數日的反彈回漲, 之前轉倉的部位基本解套, 這天在不影響太多保證金的情形下, 進了860/865 RUT bear call credit spread, 完成鐵禿鷹(Iron Condor), 每組收取權利金25USD.

好了, 到了今天, RUT基本上是一個向上突破的走勢, 今天關盤價來到了852.49, 其實我如果擺著我的鐵禿鷹不動, 90%以上在明天開盤後, 兩邊都應該是價外到期, 但是我有一個規定, 一但到了交易最後一天, 如果股價接近履約價格在1%以內, 我都會做轉倉. 原因就是之前介紹ETF和Index差別時談到的結算(Settlement)問題, Index的結算是用禮拜五的開盤價, 所以雖然今天是最後交易日, 但是明天開盤時的Gap還是會影響到交易, 如果明天一開盤RUT向上跳空2%, 在這次的例子中, 我們將會有想不到重大的虧損, 基於做現金流最重要的就是睡的好, 當最後交易日的價位太接近履約價時, 我都會再次轉倉, 我可能杞人憂天了, 其實明天不太可能開盤跳漲個15點, 但是, 第一, 一定要謹守交易守則, 第二, credit spread最怕就是價內到期, 這種慘劇發生一次就足以讓你幾年白做, 就算有1%的可能都不應該去賭.

所以今天這筆交易還是結束不了, 下面的bull put credit spread解套了, 現在輪到上面的bear call credit spread, 我又再次的把12/3進的860/865 RUT bear call credit spread轉倉到明年一月的895/900, 每組獲利15USD. 這裡要再深入談一下的是, 如果你用bid/ask中間價位來說, 應該可以每組獲利20 or 25USD, 但是我的單子擺了一個小時都沒辦法成交, 只好少賺一點, 改到15USD. 這一點我在之前介紹ETF和Index差別時也有談到, 這是Index交易的缺點, bid/ask spread太大, 流通性沒有ETF好, 常常轉倉時會有多餘的損失.

最後我們來總結一下目前為止的交易. 以一組的交易來說, 保證金是500-權利金, 為了方便計算, 暫時就不要算權利金的部分, 我們就假設每組的成本是500吧.
1. 11/8時賣765/760 bull put credit spread, 賺55USD
2. 11/15轉倉765/760 bull put credit spread到下個月745/740賺20USD
3. 12/3進860/865 bear call credit spread完成Iron Condor賺25USD
4. 12/20轉倉860/865 bear call credit spread到下個月895/900賺15USD

目前的獲利是55+20+25+15=115, 剛剛說了, 保證金就算他500, ROI=115/500=23%.
之後應該還會看狀況進bull put credit spread來完成Iron Condor, 所以如果明年一月份都價外到期的話, 這是一個大約兩個月ROI=23+%的交易, 有趣的是, 這是在一路基本都判斷不太對的情形下. 11/8我認為會漲, 結果跌了, 11/15我說破底, 他卻漲了, 12/3我覺得接近阻力他卻突破了. 沒一次猜對, 但目前卻是23%的回報, 藉這個例子, 大家可以稍微感覺一下選擇權策略如果用的恰當, 你不需要每次都對來獲利, 錯的只要不要太誇張, 你一樣可以獲利. 這讓我想起以前我上交易課時, 一位大師說的話: “I’d Rather Be Rich Than Right”. 如果你可以靈活的善用選擇權策略, 山不轉路轉, 路不轉-你可以轉.

這個交易還是沒結束, 之後有動靜時會再跟大家分享.

 

在北海道千歲機場照的

** 怎麼才渡了幾天假, 回來就覺得下個月的生活費又有著落了勒?! 呵, 人生真是美好.

 

** 複習之前分析(技術, 基本). 從上次分析後, 如果用買入多頭買權價差策略的人, 可以考慮只做短線找個好點先獲利出來, 也快到之前定的獲利一了; 其他用賣出賣權的, 權利金部分雖然不多, 但也應該有小賺一點. 再來需注意近期的短線小回調, 可考慮加碼再進.

 

 

 

北海道羊蹄山名水公園 December, 2012

** 常在注意美元日元匯率, 又剛好用美兌日匯差賺到美元. 想想原本的1美元現在可以換到更多的日元, 就乾脆也選擇去日本花掉它好了, 就選了北海道. haha :D 玩完回來剛好收割獲利.

** 沒幾天的時間(從12/12), 很快的已經到了預期的獲利目標二了.  最好是可以考慮平倉等待了, 前面到現在, 獲利也算是非常好了, 不能再貪心了(haha :D  ).  再等待好的時機點, 對的形態形成, 再來考慮放空(買日元多頭勢). 應該不會太久就會有不算太小的回調要發生. 請密切注意及準備好.

 

Previous Post on Berkshire Hathaway BuyBack

A few days ago it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway bought back $1.2 Billion dollars worth of CLASS A Berkshire Hathaway(股票代號: BRK-A).  The purchase was not done on the open market, and it was all purchased from a single long time investor.  For comparison purpose, the company has spent only $126 Million dollars for the net purchase of shares the last four quarters combined.

Berkshire Hathaway has announced raising its maximum target price of Class A shares to 120% of Book Value.  Previously the most Berkshire Hathaway was willing to pay was 110% of Book Value.  Obviously Book Value is a number updated at most quarterly because it is a balance sheet item.

There is a speculative possibility that Warren Buffett sees an improving economy through the lens of his collections of businesses.  Aside from insurance and investment, Berkshire has a number of housing related businesses.  I am not sure about the rest of the country, but in the San Francisco bay area, especially the silicon valley, I notice a dramatic positive attitude shift towards housing, and prices are appreciating rapidly.  This could mean the company is becoming even more undervalued.  The Net Present Value of purchasing its own share could be more favorable than many other investment projects that the company has looked at.  Buying a dollar for fifty cents is the primary motive of any value investor.

However, I think, once again, this recent vote of confidence on its own share is just a cover up.  This could be part of the succession transition plan.  By reducing the float in circulation, this move probably serves to further solidify future management and board control of the company through Class A share, which is worth 1500 times a Class B share but 10,000 times the voting rights of a share of Class B.  This large purchase of not-from-the-open market signals the company’s concern of “CONCENTRATION OF POWER” outside the company insiders.  In stead of Buying Back on the open market from a variety of retail investors whose individual proxy impact is negligible(Why? Because each share Class A costs $130,000.00 yeah! More than the average “ANNUAL” salary!), Buy Back from one large shareholder, who has the potential ability to influence proxies against management’s wish, in essence eliminates future troubles such as proxy fight.

This is not an attempt to undermine Berkshire Hathaway as an iconic company.  On the contrary, Berkshire Hathaway will remain an economic powerhouse for years to come.  As long as the management and board serve with the best interest of all the shareholders in mind, shareholders will benefit from the insights and expertise of the managers.  A corporation is rarely a place for democratic rule.

Most traders and investors are short sighted.  We are wrapped up as a whole in the daily price movement of a stock.  It is true that the SHORT TERM RETURN of a stock can come from capturing share price fluctuation.  However, LONG TERM RETURN can only come from the long term actual profit the underlying business generates.

Berkshire takes it one step further whenever it can,  it buys whole business and skip the waiting for the profit reflection on a stock price.  This way Buffett and company have direct access to the profit generated and apply that capital to make more investments that churn out more cash.  The current Free Cash Flow after paying for debt service is about $17 Billion a year.  The company has about $46 Billion on its balance sheet.  That is a lot of ammunition, and the company is yearning for the next big investment.

With Berkshire’s business model and Buffett and company’s sharp investment acumen and unwavering mentality, this is how INTEREST COMPOUNDING can truly work to make people wealthy.

I am long term bullish.  A price floor may have been temporarily established at 120% of current book value due to buyback.  However, always proceed cautiously and buy with a margin of safety.

We welcome comments and thank you for your supports.  Have a Safe and Happy Holidays!

 

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