Spain debt cost highest in history and Italy debt cost higher   Pay attention to the sovereign debt market and CDS requires to insure them.  This has strong implication with regards to the containment of the crisis and if the “complacency” we see in the stock  market is warranted.  Fed intervention is a positive “necessary evil” sign, and not a reason to cheer and celebrate as if the whole crisis is over.

Potential ripple effects if Greece exited the Euro  In the mean time, Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini suggests governments in Europe should lower taxes and increases salaries to boost growth, shift focus from austerity that have caused deep recessions.

 

** 時間過得真快, 自上次亞馬遜快樂財報後到現在已經一個多月了. 之後Amazon(股票代號: Amzn)大幅的回調了不少, 曾從高點約$234回調到約$207左右. 近期又到了值得關注的點了.
** 圖中來看, 目前到了一個重要的壓力區. 在比較常理情況下, 在沒有太多誇大新聞及事件發生, 及以目前大盤也給壓力的情形來看, 這次反彈向上後有很大可能應該是緩緩繼續向下調, 有試圖要去填滿前一跳空缺口的可能. 但如果能向上突破, 力道應當不小, 有機會再跳一次站穩上面的趨勢線. 但不論如何Amazon大體向上漲的主牛勢沒變.

 
** 有部位者, $230是個不錯可以考慮賣出買權的點, 繼續下調也可以快速拿到權利金膁到時間, 上漲的話也有不錯的小波段可賺.

 

** 之前提過這家美國手機電信公司, 市值也有約 USD$ 8 Billions左右, 是一家名氣不下於AT&T和Verizon的大公司. 它原本一直沒有iPhone選擇的provider, 在去年秋天左右有了iPhone4S, 加上原本就有不少好的手機方案, HTC及android市場也不錯, 和好的3G, 4G網路的硬體架構, 從產品本身的角度上應該會改善不少.
** 股價之就開始打底了許久, 近期有了一點小的突破, 可能整體回升速度不會太快, 投資人要有耐心等待. 這屬比較長期型投資或交易的股性. 近期不太建議用選擇權來做方向性策略, 會很難預測突破發生, 時間價值也會損失. 不過考慮用賣權進部位者就不一樣了, 也可關注一下, 等等好時機.

 
有幾位讀者寫信來問六月份有沒有一些交易的方向和建議, 我今天就分享一下我自己的做法, 大家可以參考一下. 順道一提的是, 由於我們收到許多的來信詢問問題, 所以請給我們一到兩週的回覆時間, 大家也可以多利用留言來問問題, 這樣大家都可以受惠.

言歸正傳, 六月該怎麼辦呢? 之前四月底的時候, 我有提醒大家, 不要被四月的大牛勢給衝昏頭了, 還建議大家要是不想離場, 不要忘了買個protective put的保險, 所謂”木強則折”, 五月市場果然就掉頭走了, 我當初的想法只是漲勢會停, 但是說實在的, 回調的比我想的深, 但是因為方向基本上正確, 之前分享給大家的RUT bear call credit spread是獲利了結的. 五月因為基本知道不會大漲, 所以操作起來相對容易, 經過五月的回調, 加上六月一開始的大跌, 基本上市場有超賣的現象的. Russell 2000 Index(股票代號: RUT)在突破之前說的支撐後(圖中咖啡色框框)支撐就變成了阻力, 之後市場也一度想要漲回去, 但是並沒有成功. S&P 500 Index(股票代號: SPX)方面, 目前在一個主要支撐的地方做200天均線的保衛戰. 整體看來, 我覺得是一個回調之後試圖打底盤整的狀態, 很難有方向可言, 震動幅度也比較大.

這樣的市場該怎麼辦呢? 我覺得這是一個可以用一些小技巧來試圖進一些比較優質的股來做之前收租covered call的策略, 我自己本身就有一些COST(Costco), 但是我不是買股做covered call, 而是利用LEAPS options做diagonal spread的方式收租, 這樣ROI比較大, 但是你要是比較熟悉用股票來做covered call, 也是一樣的. 另一方面, 你可以利用sell naked put的方式在自己喜歡的價位來試圖進這些所謂優質股, 如果進成, 很好, 進不成, 收收premium當生活費也不錯, 今天大跌的SBUX(Starbucks)是我其中的一個選擇. 這樣的方法還有可以做rolling的靈活性, 也是大家可以考慮的方法之一. 總之, 跌不一定不好, 他反倒是給大家一個機會, 看看有沒有便宜撿, 至於撿不撿的到, 撿的好不好, 就是考驗大家的經驗和眼光了.

 

Value investor likes to buy cheap and sell dear.  But sometimes the apparent cheapness could be very costly.

Research in Motion(股票代號: RIMM)(substitute your own here such as First Solar(股票代號: FSLR), Groupon(股票代號: GRPN), and many more), a wall street darling that was once dubbed one of the four hoursemen along with Google, Apple, and Amazon.  Prior to 2008, this company seemed can do no wrong.  Corporations preferred RIMM’s Blackberry mobile device over most other handsets because of corporate emails.  This seemed to be a differentiating competitive advantage that was absolute and difficult to dispute against with then, but how fast such competitive advantage eroded.  Hindsight is always 20/20.  Fast forward 4 years later, the company is trading at 1/14th the level from its high of $140+ back in 2008, it’s current P/E ratio is a despicable 4.62 depicting the investor pessimism surrounding this company(For comparison, my estimation of the fair P/E of a stable but zero growth(WTF?) company should be around 9, but we will delve into this at another time).  The company’s book value is $19.59, and it has $0 debt on its balance sheet.  At $10 dollars plus change, RIMM is trading at a substantial discount to its book value.  You may ask, is RIMM cheap?

The framework to valuating companies and their securities depends on what you are going to do with the companies.  Unless you are a Private Equity(Corporate raider) firm, you probably won’t even consider prying open the company, do an appraisal of all assets and their market values at liquidation prices, hopefully you will find some hidden values when comparing it to the cost of your acquisition and financing, deal with the grumble minority shareholders, management, and board of directors, search for possible bidders of such assets, and ship them off piece by piece, otherwise, I would suggest you proceed to the next paragraph.

According to Graham, Dodd and John Burr Williams, the price of a company should be based on its balance sheet, the income statement, and the expected future cashflow.  Expected future cashflow is one of the reasons why the stock price of a company can be significantly different from its net asset value(book value for our purpose).  Think about the cost of setting up a hot dog stand on the street corner, it is not the equipment costs that determine the wealth of the owner, but the number of hot dogs the stand can sell that determines the owner’s financial well being.  There can be numerous reasons why the hot dog stand does well or poorly: it could be the secret sauce on the dog that captivates the customers, it could be the real estate it is occupying, a monopoly within several blocks of high foot traffic from hungry patrons, it could be the hot dog stand owner is a great salesman, these winning factors are the stand’s competitive advantage.  On the other hand if the stand owner is not making enough sales to pay for the costs of running the business, or if the profit is so tiny and its prospect might not get any better, you can be certain that the intrinsic value of this hot dog stand as an on-going business might be much lower than simply selling off the equipment.  Some businesses require lots of assets, while some require less, these are industry specific characteristics and we will discuss more at another time.  The fact that the economic future of RIMM is clouded, with its sales declining rapidly, pretty much indicates the expected cashflow in the future is less than certain.  Personally, the nail in the coffin came to light when a friend of mine who works at his corporate’s IT department showed off his iPhone a few years ago when his company began adopting the iPhone and ditching the Blackberry.

Unless your investment thesis involves betting(with a high level of conviction, of course) that some white knights coming in to save RIMM(or you) and pay a higher price than what you paid for, or some magical corporate restructuring or turn around is in the making, or the company will somehow redeem itself and its old glory through a revolutionary product, which is at the mercy of consumers’ fickle taste, I would suggest you continue on your search for something better and brighter.  In such a case, an option strategy such as the long straddle or strangle may be a good way to play the increasing volatility of the underlying.

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