沒事去逛逛野生動物園,還看到了Sex and the City的Mr. Big(大人物先生), haha

** 時間過得真快, 怎麼一下子2個星期就過去了. 回顧一下之前兩篇Sprint, 在這短短2個星期內, 曾經一度漲到有當時20%左右, 到了約$3.30 . 在這兩星期內, 有好好注意關注的人, 很可能已經找到好點進了些股票部位. 喜歡短線者, 應該在上星期五關盤前獲利部分, 其於的應在今天約$3.21的短線向下突破點獲利出.
** 沒進場的也不要灰心, 這目前看來也不過是個回調狀態, 還有點機會, 看來很有機會會有個大型一點的突破要發生. 喜歡中期或長期一點的, 也可以考慮找好時機賣出賣權, 或者甚至用ATM/ITM Bull Call Spread也可(只是這要比較小心, 因為之前提過這支的突破點較不好預測); 當然, 想用股直接進的也可, 只是那可能還得再等一回會比較安全. 但現在已經是個需要密切關注的時刻了.


 


** dollar-yen 之前狂衝了一下子, 現在看起來像是準備長期慢跑嘍.
** 下面的圖先不論這是什麼的圖好了, 它們目前看起來像跌嗎?? 我怎麼看不出來?? 我怎麼看都像是它在等我們, 再多給我們一次機會進場(第三次). 跌勢和回探不同, 能分得出嗎? 只少在目前沒有任何跌勢形態形成的確認. 也先不管什麼選擇權策略部分, 只單是簡單的技術形態面上的分析, 也得學著分別得出兩者的不同.
** 黃區已獲利小部份, 回探還在做衝力分析中, 得緊緊關注.
 

 

With continuous volatility and uncertainty in the global economy, I have been meaning to put together a post about dividend paying stocks.  The reason behind this is simple, dividends are spendable cashflow in your pocket without lifting a finger.  Cash is king during tough time, and unlike capital gain, “strategically” and properly invested for yield actually feeds you throughout the year whether your stock price is up or down.  Historically speaking, about 40% of the total market return of S&P 500 is attributable to dividends, and dividend was the main reason for investing in the old days, not capital appreciation.

With bond prices rising to bubble level, and the continue depressing equity market, the spread between equity yield and bond yield is as high as it has been for years.  It makes a lot of sense for investor to look for terrific company with the ability and history to maintain and increase dividend payment.

Morgan Stanley just came out with its top US Dividend Ideas:

1. General Electric(股票代號: GE), yield 3.4%

2.Pfizer(股票代號: Pfe), yield 3.9%

3.Philip Morris International(股票代號: PM), yield 3.7%

4.Colgate-Palmolive(股票代號:Cl), yield 2.5%

5.Honeywell International(股票代號: Hon), yield 2.7%

6.Marathon Oil(股票代號: Mro), yield 2.9%

The six names are in different sectors, I think Jim Cramer would applaud that this is a diversified portfolio.  The free cash flow and payout ratio are healthy.  Philip Morris International just issued an earning warning, but other than that, these companies have long payment and dividend increase history.  This is purely a sharing of Morgan Stanley’s recommendation.  No comment is made on the valuation of each stock.  Strong dividend couples with covered call strategy is part of my choices of defensive strategy.

 

This past Wednesday, the Fed has recommitted to operation twist at least through the end of 2012.  The operation twist contains the selling or redeeming of 3 years or less maturities’ bonds on fed’s balance sheet, and use the sales proceed to purchase treasuries with maturity of 6-30 years.  The twist comes from artificially lowered longer term interest rates due to the Fed’s purchase.  Because of the fact that fixed mortgage lending rates in the U.S. are closely tied to the 10 year treasury yield, it is deemed this policy is beneficial to the mortgage refinancing market.

The Fed is also committed to the maturity extension program.  It means that the Fed has previously purchased agency-debt and agency mortgage backed securities, and will continue to recommit all the cashflow from these securities to more agency debt and and agency mortgage backed securities purchase.  This will also further lower the long term interest rate by providing support and liquidity for the agency debt and mortgage backed securities market.

During a news conference, Chairman Bernanke has reiterated the fed’s commitment of keeping short term interest rate low until at least 2014.  Here is the Fed’s press release.

It seems that the Fed is opting to wait for signs of further global and U.S. economic slow down(meaning  bad job numbers) to decide on the next round of Quantitative Easing.

The continuation of maturity extension program and operation twist are probably necessary but may not be as effective as when they were around for the first time.  It is well known in finance and real estate mortgage business insider that those home owners that could refinance, already refinanced, therefore, unless there is a further lowering of underwriting standards, I really do not see refinancing and lowering borrowers’ cost of mortgage can further stimulate the economy significantly.  Lowering 25 basis points does not have the same effect of lowering borrowing cost by a 100 basis points.  Disposable income will not be impacted by much in the short term considering there is usually high closing cost associated with mortgage refinancing.

The other half of the picture is by lowering interest rate, the Fed hopes that it acts as a stimulation to the housing market, spurring buying interests and home prices.  However, this half of the picture relies largely on two other factors, employment and to a lesser extent at least currently, in my opinion, household formation.  Without stable paying jobs, it is difficult to have a consistent new crops of buyers to absorb the housing inventory.  On top of that, shadow inventory is still a digestive issue that will take at least a few more years to work through the system.

On the other hand, I sincerely believe that many Asian countries housing markets have become somewhat frothy because of the economic expansion in the Asian economy, those places that have seen the greatest gain during the past 10 years with an unbalanced affordability will be most dangerous to some type of slow down.  Beware my friends, forever rising housing prices is an urban legend, that the 99% main streeters can’t afford to gamble away on.

Bottom line: the global economy is sluggish.  In my opinion, the Fed is very selective in firing its weapons because the timing is especially important because of two things: the Fed is running out of options and misfiring has dire consequences; and the failure of the Fiscal side to function due to gridlock.  My dear readers, don’t get excited over Fed accommodation, because that is exactly the sign of a bad economy.  Good luck navigating, and learn to protect yourselves with flexible, powerful, options strategies.

 

 

國際信評機構穆迪在今天宣佈調降15家銀行評等,調降級數介於1至3級不等.  這當中不乏美國幾家大家常在交易的大銀行: Bank of America(股票代號: bac), Citi(股票代號: c), Goldman Sachs(股票代號: gs), Morgan Stanley(股票代號: ms), JP Morgan Chase(股票代號: jpm).   下調的原因是這些銀行皆相當容易受到”市場波動性影響”且存有資本市場活動內的鉅額虧損風險。  我在幾個禮拜前也有做過 MS 摩根士丹利的技術分析, 也提到了13 元是非常重要的支撐, 在之後它有不錯的回調, 一路回到14塊左右, 直到今天信評調降, 美國銀行股都是呈現大跌的情況。    大家可以關注這幾支銀行股最近的走勢,摩根士丹利依舊可以以13塊來做為進出場指標性的考量。  JPM 現正卡在200均線上, 也很適合關注它。  GS 本來在突破$97.5的時候會進場不過因為今天的負面新聞, 看來還需要在等等多觀察。

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