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Now that the president just got reelected, the gridlock of not resolving the fiscal cliff is one step closer to fruition if not a foregone conclusion.  However, it is amazing that the markets react the way they do given the chances of a Romney/Ryan victory with the electoral votes.  The Obama victory was a tactical one, based on the fact that the popular votes were dead even.

Enough about presidential politics, I hope all of you have reined in your gains, or have raised cash and in position to start playing defense with your portfolio like we suggested earlier.  Because for value oriented investors, I think we are now closer than ever to the opportunistic entry point prompted by a big sell off.  Please approach all investment decision in a rational fashion based on sound logic and facts.

–Previous related Post

27 Stocks with Giant Dividend and Huge BuyBacks Part 1 of 3

With no further delay, here we go:

Campbell Soup(股票代號: CPB)

Price Target
$39
Dividend Yield
3.4%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3.3%
Accretion + Yield
6.7%
Description: Campbell makes food. The stock has rallied on new CEO Denise Morrison’s “aggressive, painful” moves.

Exxon(股票代號: XOM)

Price Target
$98
Dividend Yield
2.4%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
4.7%
Accretion + Yield
7.1%
Description: Exxon is an oil company. It hit a 52-week high on India expansion.

Western Union(股票代號: WU)

Price Target
$22
Dividend Yield
2.2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
4.9%
Accretion + Yield
7.1%
Description: Western Union is a financial transactions company. It’s now expanding into Mexico.

CSX(股票代號: CSX)

Price Target
$24
Dividend Yield
2.5%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
4.9%
Accretion + Yield
7.4%
Description: CSX is a rail car manufacturer. It recently upgraded by Bernstein to “market perform.”

Walgreen(股票代號: WAG)

Price Target
$43
Dividend Yield
2.5%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
5.2%
Accretion + Yield
7.6%
Description: Walgreen is a retail pharmacy company. S&P Capital IQ’s Joseph Agnese says “sales benefits from easier flu comparisons and recent settlement of [Express Scripts] pharmacy benefit management conflict” will boost the stock.

The Blackstone Group(股票代號: BX)

Price Target
$17.50
Dividend Yield
5.4%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
2.5%
Accretion + Yield
7.9%
Description: Blackstone is a private equity firm. It now the largest home buyer in the country.

Pfizer(股票代號: PFE)

Price Target
$28
Dividend Yield
3.2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
4.8%
Accretion + Yield
7.9%
Description: Pfizer makes drugs. It continues expanding in China, where it just hired 600 new workers.

Williams-Sonoma(股票代號: WSM)

Price Target
$48
Dividend Yield
2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
6.4%
Accretion + Yield
8.5%
Description: Williams-Sonoma is a retail household products company. It beat on earnings and revenues last quarter.

Validus Holdings(股票代號: VR)

Price Target
$40
Dividend Yield
3.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
5.6%
Accretion + Yield
8.5%
Description: Validus is an insurance company. It bought reinsurance competitor Flagstone Re last month for $623 million.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

今天跟大家分享一下一個稍微比較冷門一點的技術分析指標: TTM Squeeze. 所謂的TTM Squeeze其實包含了兩個技術指標: 布林帶(Bollinger Bands)肯特納通道(Keltner Channel).結合了這兩個技術指標, 就誕生了TTM Squeeze.

定義: TTM Squeeze指的就是當布林帶走到了肯特納通道的裡面的時候. 一般來說, 肯特納通道是比較穩定的, 也就是說, 肯特納通道的寬度一般來說是不太會變動的. 相對的, 布林帶寬度的變化就比較大, 所以當布林帶走到肯特納通道裡面的時候, 就是布林帶變窄很多的時候. 這樣的現象說明了股價進入了浮動較小的”整合期(consolidation)”, 市場在這個時候是在儲蓄下一波走勢的能量, 所以會有很好的機會, 當價位突破通道的時候有比較大幅度的價位變動, TTM Squeeze就是用來找尋這樣的交易機會.

從下圖中的例子我們可以看到, 黃色比較穩定寬度的是肯特納通道, 紅色的是布林帶, 紫色框框就是所謂的TTM Squeeze.
應用: 我很喜歡這一類的技術指標, 這個之前介紹的NR-7有一點點相似的地方. 市場主要分為兩個時期, 第一個就是趨勢期, 在這個時期股價有比較強的方向性, 這時候就是所謂跟著趨勢走(trade with trend)最好的時期. 第二個就是整理期, 這個時期中, 股價雖然上上下下, 但是方向性很弱, 任何一個方向都不容易獲利. 所以在進場之前如果你可以先知道市場現在是在那一個時期, 對於選用策略和制定交易計畫來說會有很大的幫助. 而這一類的技術指標就提供了許多這樣的信息.

如果你用ThinkorSwim的交易平台, 交易平台已經有這一個study了, 你可以直接使用, 你加入這個技術指標後, 你會看到類似下面的圖:


最下面的部分就是TTM Squeeze, 我們要分兩部分來看這個指標, 圖中的綠色跟紅色的點, 是TTM Squeeze有無發生的指標, 當紅色的點出現的時候, 就是TTM Squeeze發生了. 第二部分就是圖中往上跟往下的bar, 往上的青藍色表示動能在往上, 是屬於買入進場(Long)的信號, 往下的紅色表示動能在往下, 是屬於賣出進場(Short)的信號. 當bar的顏色由青藍色轉成深藍色, 表示漲勢的動能可能將要結束, 如果連續出現兩根, 這是結束Long部位出場的信號. 同樣的, 如果向下的bar由紅色轉成黃色, 代表向下的走勢可能要結束, 如果連續出現, 是結束Short部位出場的信號. 我們再看一下上面的例子, 白色箭頭就是剛剛結束TTM Squeeze的進場訊號(紅->綠), 動能的訊號顯示是漲勢, 出場的信號在紫色箭頭的地方.

值得一提的是, 我用這樣的交易法則做了一些back test, 得出來了結論卻是令人失望的, 很多的結果都顯示這樣並不profitable, 但是我發現, 第一, 如果你用這樣的方法在一些變動和趨勢比較強的股票, 你可以收到不錯的結果, 還有, 利用這樣的指標, 搭配一些主要的支撐, 阻力來相互參考, 可以成為制定交易計畫的重要資訊. 第二, 如果應用這樣的指標, 搭配像是信貸息差(credit spread)的選擇權策略, 可以有非常高的勝率, 只要止損和資金控制做的好, 效果相當好, 以上圖為例, 如果在白色的箭頭出現的時候, 能夠在60-65價位附近做Bull Put Spread, 勝率和回報都是相當好的. 大家可以參考一下今天這個TTM Squeeze的應用分享.

 

之前的文章中, 就有請大家注意一下可口可樂(KO)在36塊左右這個價位的支撐. 上一次的試探中, 股價果然在支撐的價位做了一個小反彈, 試圖守住這個支撐價位, 反彈之後最近又跌到了36塊的附近了. 從日圖的大方向來看, 似乎有類似頭肩頂(Head and shoulders)的走勢, 你可以從圖中三個圈圈中看出來, 隨然這不是一個非常標準的頭肩頂, 但是基本的型態是沒有錯的, 從最下面的K/D圖中也可以看到似乎將要形成的lower high的走勢, 這樣看起來, 的確很像一個要向下突破勢頭, 但是大家要注意一下成交量, 從10/22以來, 似乎有量縮的情形, 如果真的有向下突破的情形發生, 要確認突破的同時交易量也要出來. 無論如何, 這一個價位大家一定要留心觀察.

 

With the looming fiscal cliff, the politically charged uncertainty artificially induced created a cloud that may prompt an equity market sell off.  While the value investor in me don’t usually condone timing the market, the trader in me is thinking perhaps I can try to time my entry by getting myself ready if a sell off materializes, as Buffett said, be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.

The iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index(股票代號: DVY) yields an impressive 3.49% while the ten year treasury yields 1.7%, for comparison.  Some of the yields here on this list can easily surpass 3.49% and many great companies have terrific dividend growth policy.  To put it in perspective, social security check is indexed to the Consumer Price Index, the CPI, which has a long term average of about 3%.  The dividend growth rate of many of these companies can easily reach 10% or more annually.  This is important because health care costs are increasing at a rate that far exceed of the CPI, who knows if medicare would bankrupt this country with the way our government is handling its own finance.  Seniors beware, I do not recommend aggressively buying dividend paying stocks ahead of any decision from congress on income and capital gain tax.  However, there might be a point at which the price is so low and the yield is so good, that makes the purchase an offer you cannot refuse.

I think dividend is important to not only seniors, but to most younger investors, especially the Facebook millionaire employees, whose selling restriction was just lifted a few days ago. The dividend income is a great way to increase spendable cash position that can help purchase even more undervalued stocks.  Make no mistake, without dividend or regular savings and contributions, the only way you can raise cash is to sell your position.  Unless your position is overvalued, selling it to raise cash for other new position is rarely a good idea.

The lowered stock price makes the dividend yield relatively larger;  this should be especially attractive to seniors and people needing income.  It is generally recommended for those needing to live off of income primarily from their investments or investor at the later stage of his or her life to diversify among different companies or even asset classes, I have neither problem with nor endorse that recommendation except I would object when people over diversify given the level of homework done I required on every investment purchase, as the Bond King himself, Mr. Bill Gross of Pimco, once said “GOOD (INVESTMENT) IDEAS SHOULD NOT BE DIVERSIFIED AWAY INTO MEANINGLESS OBLIVION.

The buybacks performed at  lower prices provide the shareholders greater bang for the buck.  In fact, I would be thrilled if the price continues to be depressed because the buybacks would then be done at significantly below intrinsic value,   The goal here is, with proper studying and understanding, there might be companies from the following list you would like for long term investment.  The greater dividend and huge buybacks would further enhance value.  Bear in mind any possibility of conflict of interests by Goldman Sachs, as it is allegedly evident in the Greg Smith Goldman Sachs Debacle.  Therefore please do your homework before purchase.

 

TE Connectivity Ltd.(股票代號: TEL) 

Price Target
$45
Dividend Yield
2.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
2.7%
Accretion + Yield
5%
Description: TE supplies connectors for the telecommunications industry. It’s hiring 3,000 new employees in Bangalore.

Cummins Inc.(股票代號: CMI)

Price Target
$116
Dividend Yield
2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3%
Accretion + Yield
5%
Description: Cummins manufactures engines and motor vehicle parts. It just signed a partnership with Hyundai to build mid-range engines.

INVESCO(股票代號: IVZ)

Price Target
$28.50
Dividend Yield
2.7%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
2.6%
Accretion + Yield
5.3%
Description: Invesco is an investment management service company. It recently announced it’s expanding into India.

Corning Inc.(股票代號: GLW)

Price Target
$16
Dividend Yield
2.4%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3.2%
Accretion + Yield
5.5%
Description: Corning makes specialty glass and ceramic products. Goldman just upgraded the stock.

St. Jude Medical(股票代號: STJ)

Price Target
$48
Dividend Yield
2.1%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3.5%
Accretion + Yield
5.6%
Description: St. Jude develops medical technology. Wells Fargo recently reaffirmed the stock’s “outperform” rating.

JP Morgan(股票代號: JPM)

Price Target
$42
Dividend Yield
2.9%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
2.7%
Accretion + Yield
5.7%
Description: JPMorgan is an investment bank. Seeking Alpha says the stock is “deeply discounted and ready to soar long term.”

Baxter(股票代號: BAX)

Price Target
$68
Dividend Yield
2.5%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3.5%
Accretion + Yield
6%
Description: Baxter develops pharmaceutical products. It just set an annual sales-growth target of 5 percent.

Republic(股票代號: RSG)

Price Target
$32
Dividend Yield
3.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
2.9%
Accretion + Yield
6.2%
Description: Republic is a waste management company. It saw huge YOY Q2 gains.

JM Smucker(股票代號: SJM)

Price Target
$90
Dividend Yield
2.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
3.9%
Accretion + Yield
6.2%
Description: Smucker makes food. It generated $713.0 million cash while it booking net income of $459.1 million in the past year, turning 12.5% of its revenue into free cash flow.

Source: Goldman Sachs
To Be Continued….

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