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Recently I read an article about the high flying Real Estate price in Hong Kong, and one of the conclusions was as a result, in spite of this being the year of the DRAGON, the birth rate this year so far has been lagging behind by 5.6% than same time last year, which is unusual and in contrast to the previous years of the dragon, which saw a significant increase in birth rate.

The article offered a simple explanation, the direct linking of the high real estate price and low birth rate has reminded me of the idea of “correlation vs. causality, and how incentive matters” from the books and movie, Freakonomics; and Superfreakonomics.

The ideas entail are mind blowing, and they are extremely interesting unlike the dreaded discipline of Economics, the topics from the books and the DVD are great fun and easy to understand for all people and I ESPECIALLY recommend them to NEW PARENTS.  The movie explores many interesting daily phenomena like, what really makes a GOOD PARENT? and how an Economist Potty Train his baby girl.

Please take a minute to view some of the videos, and I bet you will be surprised by some of the outcomes.

 

 

大盤 SPX 的選擇權活動彷彿正告訴我們市場正處於一個”危險地帶”……

 

太陽能股龍頭 FSLR 今天放量突破, 不過尾排有點拉回, 話說太陽能股已經沉寂大半年了, 這次如果突破,會不會跟以往太陽能突破爆衝亂漲一樣呢? 有投資過solar energy股票的朋友一定都知道我在說什麼吧,機會是留給有準備的人,大家要好好關注這它以及其他的相關股。  明天開盤挺重要的。

 

自從上次一篇好玩的經驗“在雲端交易”後,這次是另一篇更好玩的經驗,權傾天下第一篇從”天空中”寫的po文。剛從LAX上飛機,現在在正在前往Chicago(芝加哥)的“飛機上”。由於這個經驗實在是很好玩,也想來分享一下。圖片,照片的部分,就等下機後再補吧,現在搞有點太麻煩,就先用iPhone照下來就是了。

標題已經寫得很清楚,世界在變,趨勢在變,重點是: 你跟不跟得上變化如此大的未來趨勢。曾經古代人人要出門才能知天下事,後來又可以“秀才不出門能知天下事”。可是也別忘了“讀萬卷書,不如行萬里路”,人除了眼讀,耳聽的兩個感覺外(也就是在電腦電視手機前只有的感受),還有其他的感覺可以用來接收及觀察,在“室內”不出門,能獲得的畢竟有限。有些動察先機的敏銳度,還是得靠“體驗”,是身體力行的去“體驗”才能更有抓住趨勢的能力。現代的宅男宅女們,用Google找到想去的地方,動動屁股起身出門吧!  ^_^

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-dividend-tax-cliff-approaches.html

–Previous related Posts

27 stocks with Giant Dividend and Huge BuyBacks Part 1

27 stocks with Giant Dividend and Huge BuyBacks Part 2

Proceed with Cautions.  S&P 500 has once again bounced back above 1400.  Most people won’t recommend buying stocks for dividend yield right now.  One study by a NYU Professor suggested that if the Post-cliff dividend tax rates advanced to as high as 40%(Clinton Era dividend rate), that would result in a price effect of about -15% for the S&P 500 (with a current yield of 2.02%), -18% for high dividend paying stocks( 4% yield), and about -7% for non dividend paying stocks.

My point being provided the company is healthy with great foreseeable business economic, if the price of such dividend paying stock got ridiculously hammered to beyond recognition, there is a chance you may be able to profit from other’s misfortune.  Remember, retired seniors do need income to live off of, whether it came from savings, selling stocks, annuities, fixed income, rental incomes, pensions, social securities or dividends, and that is going to be the one great legacy and wisdom they bestowed upon us in my humble opinion.

BlackRock(股票代號: BLK)

Price Target
$210
Dividend Yield
3.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
6.4%
Accretion + Yield
8.5%
Description: BlackRock is a fund manager. It is well positioned to take advantage of new federal hedge fund advertising rules.

Marathon(股票代號: MPC)

Price Target
$66
Dividend Yield
2.2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
6.4%
Accretion + Yield
8.6%
Description: Marathon is an oil company. It just purchased a refinery from BP.

Norfolks Southern(股票代號: NSC)

Price Target
$78
Dividend Yield
3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
6.7%
Accretion + Yield
9.6%
Description: Norfolk makes rail cars. It remains poised to benefit from natural gas drilling.

Coca-Cola(股票代號: CCE)

Price Target
$35
Dividend Yield
3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
6.7%
Accretion + Yield
9.6%
Description: Coca-Cola makes drinks. It reached a near two-year high last month.

Lowe’s(股票代號: LOW)

Price Target
$33
Dividend Yield
2.2%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
9.7%
Accretion + Yield
11.8%
Description: Lowe’s is a retail home improvement company. S&P recently reaffirmed its A- rating and removed them from their CreditWatch warning list.

Ameriprise(股票代號: AMP)

Price Target
$64
Dividend Yield
2.5%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
9.4%
Accretion + Yield
11.9%
Description: Ameriprise is a financial planning company. It’s rumored to be on the verge of purchasing ING.

Time Warner(股票代號: TWX)

Price Target
$44
Dividend Yield
2.3%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
11%
Accretion + Yield
13.2%
Description: TimeWarner is a cable and Internet provider. It’s up more than 50 percent in 2012, and is about to add NFL Network.

Travelers Inc.(股票代號: TRV)

Price Target
$75
Dividend Yield
2.6%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
14.9%
Accretion + Yield
17.5%
Description: Traverlers is an insurance company. It hit an all-time high last month on rising insurance rates.

Assurant Inc.(股票代號: AIZ)

Price Target
$45
Dividend Yield
2.1%
EPS Accretion From Buybacks
19.0%
Accretion + Yield
21.1%
Description: Assurant is an insurance company. Fitch recently affirmed two of the company’s operating units as “stable” based on improved financial performance.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Dollar-Yen(美元-日元滙率) 之前相關文章:
- 2012/6/21 – Run Forrest Run!
2012/6/25 – 阿甘等你一起來慢跑
- 2012/10/25 – 阿甘也跑太久了吧
- 2012/11/18 - 美元-日元滙率中期獲利點

** 也沒什麼要多說的, 只是這個突破實在是太大太爽了, 心情上想分享一下. 之前文章提過一點, 類似像是這樣的突破, 就1個標準口(standard lot), 大約就可有個約USD$4000~5000的獲利; 那….. 就來個2~3口呢?! (haha, 好個聖誕禮物, 趕快去買年底的機票吧, 可以再找個地方去走走嘍). 就算是前兩次的提醒, 回調之後再度進場, 也是很高的獲利了.

** 大至的部位應可考慮先獲利了結了, 可以等近期的回調再做動作. 看來之前的策略 “Move my (profitable) stops and let the winners run!! Run “Forex” Run!! “ 是還不錯的決定, 雖然有點久, 不過早提醒過這會是個”阿甘慢跑”. 目前留下來繼續跑的, 比例上不應留太多.

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