This is a conviction list of secular growth stocks from Morgan Stanley analysts for investors who worry about the fiscal cliff. Note: The EPS growth is the projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011-2014, the PE estimates are based on 2012 EPS expectations, and the PEG ratio refers to the price earnings to growth ratio which is an indicator of the stock’s valuation. Investment thesis is also provided.

I have always been hesitant to simply reproduce a whole list from sell-side firms as most people would just go out and buy whatever’s on the list, without studying these companies, and expect to profit without regards to risks.
Be mindful of the fact that Morgan Stanley may have conflict of interests by having or seek to have business relationships or more with the companies listed here, such as Facebook or GNC in its post-LBO IPO deal. Therefore, beware of how you utilize this list. It is always interesting to discover lesser known names and learn about what theses firms do.

Amazon(股票代號: AMZN)

EPS growth: 43.8%
PE 2012: 327.9
PEG ratio: 7.5
Amazon is the best positioned global eCommerce retailer and has a competitive advantage in pricing and customer service, according to Morgan Stanley’s Scott Devitt.

American Tower(股票代號: AMT)

EPS growth: 34.3%
PE 2012: 50.1
PEG ratio: 1.5
American Tower has exposure to emerging markets and is benefiting from mobile broadband growth, according to Morgan Stanley’s Simon Flannery.

Apple(股票代號: AAPL)

EPS growth: 34.4%
PE 2012: 15.4
PEG ratio: 0.4
Apple is the “main beneficiary of smartphone/tablet proliferation” and stands to gain unit and profit share, according to Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty.

Athenahealth(股票代號: ATHN)

EPS growth: 22.6%
PE 2012: 93.6
PEG ratio: 4.1
“A leading share in the cloud-based Healthcare IT market, a growing product portfolio which can leverage its existing user base, and an entry into the enterprise market provide ATHN with a compelling secular growth story in Healthcare IT,” according to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Maresca.

Atlas Resource Partners(股票代號: ARP)

EPS growth: 26.1%
PE 2012: NM
PEG ratio: NA
Atlas Resource Partners is position to see cash distribution growth rise over multiple years because of its natural gas opportunities and exploration and production structure, according to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Maresca.

Cerner(股票代號: CERN)

EPS growth: 19.7%
PE 2012: 31.9
PEG ratio: 1.6
Cerner is expected to gain market share and is expected to benefit from mid-term stimulus spending on healthcare IT, according to Rick Goldwasser.

Cognizant Tech Solutions(股票代號: CTSH)

EPS growth: 18.1%
PE 2012: 20.0
PEG ratio: 1.1
Cognizant Tech Solutions is expected to gain from global demand for high-quality and cheaper IT services.

Crown Castle(股票代號: CCI)

EPS growth: 50.1%
PE 2012: 67.6
PEG ratio: 1.3
The additional towers needed to meet demand for mobile broadband growth will benefit Crown Castle, according to Simone Flannery.

Dollar General(股票代號: DG)

EPS growth: 16.8%
PE 2012: 18.5
PEG ratio: 1.1
Dollar General is expected to benefit as consumers that are economizing and operating on a budget, according to Joseph Parkhill.

Dunkin Brands(股票代號: DNKN)

EPS growth: 22.4%
PE 2012: 23.0
PEG ratio: 1.0
Dunkin Brands could double its store base as it expands into the west and the company has little exposure to inflation, according to John Glass.

EMC(股票代號: EMC)

EPS growth: 16.9%
PE 2012: 15.7
PEG ratio: 0.9
American high tech multinational company EMC Corp is expected to benefit from strong products, investments in emerging technologies and increased distribution, according to Katy Huberty.

F5 Networks(股票代號: FFIV)

EPS growth: 19.5%
PE 2012: 24.1
PEG ratio: 1.2
Tech company F5 Networks should gain market share from Cisco as it exits the Application Delivery Controller (ADC) market, according to Ehud Gelblum.

Facebook(股票代號: FB)

EPS growth: 29.7%
PE 2012: 40.6
PEG ratio: 1.4
Facebook is a “global leader in social networking is focused on user utility and delivering engaging experiences for advertisers and developers,” according to Scott Devitt.

Family Dollar(股票代號: FDO)

EPS growth: 20.1%
PE 2012: 17.6
PEG ratio: 0.9
Like Dollar General, Family Dollar is also expected to benefit as consumers that are economizing and operating on a budget, according to Joseph Parkhill.

T0 Be Continued…
Source: Morgan Stanley; Repost from Businessinsider.com

 

** 自前一篇看完一些Intel Corp(英代爾)的基本面,我們來看看一點進階型技術分析。
** 從圖中最右來看,這是一個high pole reversal(反轉)訊號。發生在XO圖中很重要的45° 趨勢線附近,當下空頭衝量未減,很擔心突破向下的機率不小。保守一點會在它之後很可能發生的大震盪consolidate後再看當時K線給的訊號再做多。可以注意約$17~$18區間附近用賣出賣權考慮進股做多。也可利用目前空頭訊號做短線空頭突破,但必需搭配K線形態。

 

A reader asked about Intel Corp.(股票代號: INTC), which is at its current 52-weeks low, so I think its fair game to be interested in an industry leader; let’s take a look:

PROs
Market dominant leader on microprocessors.
Sales and earnings are less volatile and cyclical than competitor such as Advanced Micro Device(股票代號: AMD) mainly due to more diversified business units and market dominance.
Great dividend (4.2%) and supported by free cash flow albeit high pay out ratio based on levered free cash flow.
Strong Cash pile (14.8 Billions) on Balance Sheet
Return on Equity 27.15% but deviated from 9 year average of 18%(9 year average LTD to Capitalization was 5%, and currently it is at 13%)
Net margin(23.97%) on the rise vs. 9 year average(18.45%)
Strong Current Ratio

CONs
Mature low growth corded PC Market in cyclical business environment(upgrade cycle).
***Weak Mobile device processors penetration due to poor chip performance.
High Cap Ex(10.7 Billion in 2011, previous 9 year average is less than 5 Billion), Long term debt more than tripled to 7+ Billion since 2010.

Investment rationale/thesis/risk
Intel is a high tech firm, but should be view as a mature low(no?) growth company. Mobile devices penetration sticking out like a sore thumb, it will be the Achilles heel of this company because of growing popularity of smart phones, tablets and other mobile devices that require low battery consumption. Mobile will be the growth engine for the next few years, but this company lacks a good strategy/product in this space. Therefore, growth P/E expansion is not likely until issue resolved.

Conclusion
Valuation: Estimated Market Cap: 103.41 Billiions==> Estimated intrinsic value $20.67/share; Please buy with a margin of safety, great long term dividend income play
Events in the near future: 11/3 Ex-dividend date; 10/16 Earnings
Must pay attention to mobile strategy.

** Please checkout our technical analysis of current INTC here. **

 

又進入了財報重點的時間, 本週有許多很重要的財報, 今天在這裡提醒大家一下, 主要有

1. CMG – 10/18
2. DO – 10/18
3. WYNN – 10/15
4. ISRG – 10/16
5. HON – 10/19
6. GS – 10/16
7. MCD – 10/19
8. IBM – 10/16
9. JNJ – 10/16
10. GOOG – 10/18

你可以在這裡下載本週主要財報的細節(股價50以上, 資本額大於2B): 財報股票下載

 

Algorithmic Trading is a field in finance that utilizes computer programs and algorithms to automatically execute investment strategies and/or executing orders without human interventions. Other names such as Algo, Black Box Trading, and Automated Trading are typically used in the field. There are two main catagories of algorithmic Trading: modeling investment strategies and executing orders.

Investment strategies can be modeled and coded into programs to monitor live market data for investment and/or arbitrage opportunities. Any automated strategies as simple as long/short based on moving averages to the more sophisticated using artificial intelligence with complex mathematics can fall under this category.

Automatic order execution is the other category of algorithmic trading. Suppose an investor wants to long one million shares of Apple. He would want to minimize his market impacts that would cause himself buying expensive shares. A possible strategy is to break up the trade into smaller blocks and execute them separately (some times anonymously) to minimize his market impact. Strategies such as VWAP or dark pool trading fall under this category. Alternatively, order execution can generate revenue if one can view and execute orders faster than other players in the market. Suppose Tom wants to buy one million shares of Citigroup and his broker sent out bids in the market. John’s company is the next door of the exchange and sees the bids before all other players do. John sees the bids are above market prices and immediately buy all available shares in the market, then sell them to Tom to profit the spreads. Such strategy is the foundation of High Frequency Trading and can generate profits from good order execution.

Well-funded players could have both investment strategies and order executions automated. Alternatively, order executions can be outsourced to brokers. Since automatic order executions requires expensive hardware and human capital, individual investors who utilize algorithms to trade usually for investment strategies.

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