Couldn't resolve host '' 2012 October | 權傾天下 Tradeoptions4living - Part 2

Google(GOOG)在財報之後暴跌了將近100點, 跟之前高點的770左右也有很大幅度的回調, 今天提醒一下大家GOOG近期的趨勢. 由圖中我們可以看到上一波的漲勢Google一路從550左右漲到大約770, 如果我們用fibonacci retracement(斐波那契回撤)來看, 665這一個價位剛剛好是一個價位上的支撐和fibonacci retracement 50%的重疊, Google也剛好在這裡稍微的回頭了一些, 所以我覺得大家應該要好好的注意這一個重要的支撐, 如果跌破, 630-640將是下一個支撐價位.


Previous related post, please read through part 1 and link on how to approach this list.

42 secular growth stocks 2012 part 1 of 3


Fortinet(股票代號: FTNT)

EPS growth: 18.2%
PE 2012: 50.1
PEG ratio: 2.7
Fortinet should benefit from a long-term shift to consolidated network security and increasing security demand, according to Keith Weiss.

Fresh Market(股票代號: TFM)

EPS growth: 27.2%
PE 2012: 41.6
PEG ratio: 1.5
Fresh Market should benefit from the consumer trend in natural and organic foods and in health and wellness, according to Katy Huberty.

Fusion-io(股票代號: FIO)

EPS growth: 43.8%
PE 2012: 83.6
PEG ratio: 1.9
Fusion-io benefits from “first-mover advantage in disruptive flash-based storage solutions that are increasingly used in enterprise and cloud environments,” according to Katy Huberty.

Genesee & Wyoming(股票代號: GWR)

EPS growth: 19.9%
PE 2012: 26.3
PEG ratio: 1.3
Railroad holding company Genesee & Wyoming benefits from price and productivity improvements in the sector, according to WIlliam Greene.

GNC(股票代號: GNC)

EPS growth: 27.4%
PE 2012: 16.6
PEG ratio: 0.6
Mark Wilatmuth thinks GNC would benefit from rising consumer interest in health and wellness.

Google(股票代號: GOOG)

EPS growth: 15.7%
PE 2012: 17.8
PEG ratio: 1.1
Google stands to benefit from the long-term shift to digital advertising, according to Scott Devitt. He projects that the company will post 15 percent compound earnings growth over the next three years.

Intuitive Surgical(股票代號: ISRG)

EPS growth: 16.7%
PE 2012: 34.5
PEG ratio: 2.1
Intuitive Surgical is expected to benefit from little competition in robotic surgery, according to David Lewis. Its revenues are expected to grow 20 – 23 percent in 2012.

Jive Software(股票代號: JIVE)

EPS growth: NM
PE 2012: NM
PEG ratio: NA
Jive Software stands to benefit from end-market demand and should post over 40 percent revenue growth in the medium term, according to Adam Holt.

Linkedin Corp(股票代號: LNKD)

EPS growth: 89.9%
PE 2012: 214.1
PEG ratio: 2.4
LinkedIn has disrupted the traditional recruiting industry, according to Soctt Devitt.

Lululemon Athletica(股票代號: LULU)

EPS growth: 29.9%
PE 2012: 40.0
PEG ratio: 1.3
Lululemon’s stores could double in five years, according to Kimberly Greenberger.

Marsh & Mclennan(股票代號: MMC)

EPS growth: 18.0%
PE 2012: 15.7
PEG ratio: 0.9
Marsh & Mclennan will see strong EPS growth as its property and casualty insurance (P&C) pricing power increases and profit grows, according to Gregory Locraft.

MasterCard(股票代號: MA)

EPS growth: 16.1%
PE 2012: 20.7
PEG ratio: 1.3
Mastercard is expected to gain from the global shift to electronic payments from cash/checks, according to Glenn Fodor.

Michael Kors Holdings(股票代號: KORS)

EPS growth: 40.0%
PE 2012: 37.2
PEG ratio: 0.9
Michael Kors should expand to 600 stores worldwide, according to Kimbertly Greenberger.

O’Reilly Automotove Inc.(股票代號: ORLY)

EPS growth: 19.5%
PE 2012: 18.1
PEG ratio: 0.9
O’Reilly Automotive should benefit from growth in the auto parts retail industry over the next three – five years, according to David Gober. The industry still faces little threat from the eCommerce industry.

Source: Morgan Stanley; Repost from
To Be Continued….


這裡再來提醒大家一下財報, 本週比較重要的財報有:
1. AAPL – 10/25
2. AMZN – 10/25
3. BA – 10/24
4. CME – 10/25
5. COH – 10/23
6. CTXS – 10/24
7. FFIV – 10/24
8. MMM – 10/23
9. NFLX – 10/23
10. WYNN – 10/25

你也可以從這裡下載股價50以上, 資本額2B以上的名單: 財報股票下載


Autoregressive Model (AR) is one of the most vanilla algorithm widely used in the algorithmic trading field. The main application of the AR model is to forecast prices in the future using current and/or historical prices. In this series of posts, we will discuss how this model is implemented and go over a simple strategy utilizing its algorithm.

One note reader should keep in mind is that most well known algorithmic trading strategies are being implemented by many market participants (i.e. funds, financial institutions, and individual traders). Thus, the resultant exploitable strategies may not be proprietary and the corresponding profit opportunities recede. However, understanding the basics is essential for more complex strategies.

The founding idea of an AR model is that current price is somewhat dependent to the historical prices. Although this idea is against Efficient Market Hypotheses (EMH), the mathematics behind the model is useful for algorithmic trading purposes. Besides, the academia and the industries have numerous arguments that EMH is not entirely correct.

When observing historical prices, the AR Model can be set to observe 1 period, 2 periods, or N periods into the history. For our discussion, let’s use a time interval of our observation being daily stock prices. If we observe 5 days into history to model current prices, we call it a AR(5) Model. Similarly, 4 days would be AR(4), and AR(1) for looking 1 day into historical price. Lets discuss AR(1) of its simplicity and popularity. Below is the mathematic formula for an AR(1) model:

CurrentPrice = ConstantA + ConstantB x LastPrice + Model Error.

CurrentPrice is today’s stock price; i.e. at time T=0.
LastPrice is yesterday’s stock price; i.e. at time T-1.
ConstantA is the intercept of a linear relationship between CurrentPrice and LastPrice
ConstantB is the slope of a linear relationship between CurrentPrice and LastPrice

In part2, we will define the mathematical jargons above and understand how the formula works.


大部分的時候, 我都是偏向勸告大家盡量避開財報, 但是我也知道, 很多人賭性堅強, 財報不做一下, 好像對不起自己, 所以我之前也有介紹了一些財報的交易法給大家. 其實說白了, 沒有財報必勝密技. 簡單來說, 財報就是買家和賣家對賭, 隱含波動率(IV)和股價波動較量, 隱含波動率掉的多, 賣家勝, 股價跑的多, 買家勝.

Google(股票代號:GOOG), 今天在公佈財報後因為沒有達到預期($9.03 a share vs $10.65 a share), 股價跳空大跌10%, 還一度停止交易. CMG在盤後財報, 目前也是大跌14%到達245, 還不知道明天開盤會是多少. 但是你看看CMG公佈的財報:

Highlights for the third quarter of 2012 as compared to the third quarter of 2011 include:

  • Revenue increased 18.4% to $700.5 million
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased 4.8%
  • Opened 36 new restaurants
  • Restaurant level operating margin was 27.4%, an increase of 70 basis points
  • Net income was $72.3 million, an increase of 19.6%
  • Diluted earnings per share was $2.27, an increase of 19.5%


與去年同期比較, 收入上漲18.4%, 淨收入更是成長19.5%, 我不是甚麼經濟學家, 但是我真的看不出來大跌的原因. 當然, 很多的分析師都可以看圖說故事, 像是沒有到達預期拉, 雖有成長但是開始緩慢拉, 市場已經飽和拉…等等. 我要說的是, 基本上在發生之前, 沒有人可以預測. 而相較於財報, 我反而覺得一般時刻技術分析比較可以帶給我們合理的資訊來擬定交易策略. 所以老話一句, 除非你閒的發荒, 還是少惹財報吧.

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