www.Diablo.com

** 全世界一堆電玩瘋狂者等待已久的大製作電玩遊戲, 今天終於release了! Diablo3!! 很誇張的是有的今天work from home(其實在打game), 有的乾脆請假, 有的公司乾脆今天放大家一天假, 哈哈. 在之前文章SteveO有提過這個大製作的電玩遊戲會在近期推出, 我們每個人都有一個copy了, 目前server太忙碌, 連不上去, 煩死了, 還是來做做分析好了.

 

 

 

 

 

 

** 從圖上看, Activision Blizzard(股票代號: ATVI)此股在過去3年來動盪不算特別大, 在2008年後有點慢慢回穩的型態. Candlstick圖(K圖)中顯示, 有點ascending triangle, 可能是在慢慢打底後在準備突破的一個型態. 由XO圖中來看, 應該會有一個大型的突破要發生, 只是OX圖不好抓timing, 要很注意公司近期的事件及價圖上的變化. 大體上來說, 此股會建議考慮去做長期性的策略會比較好.

** 獲利目標來看, K圖可能短期只能給到$21區及$26區, 但已經很不錯了. 目前由OX圖來看, 有點誇張, 少則在約$30左右, 長期多則可以約過$60以上(~$80). 當然這就要非常的去注意基本盤面上的變化了, 若基本面上有變化, 則這些分析都會有變.

** 基本盤面上分析就不能在這麼短時間內給出太多細節了. 不過就一個簡單的emotional behavior可以知, 他們是一個有經驗的公司, operation efficiency不至於差太多, 可是revenue應該是很有機會boost up不少, operating income也應該會boost上不少. 5/9財報剛出, 約8/2左右下一次財報出, 可以關注一下.

 

** priceline.com(股票代號: Pcln) 約6天到short-term target 1, 可以考慮部分獲利.
** 如所預期, 星期一有短期向下突破確認, 目前向下力道有小阻力, 卻還沒有衝力停止的訊號, 可以考慮繼續持有部分到short-term target 2. 密切關注近期變化, 可將停損單拉近; 因為已經獲利, 也不用太多擔心, 只是可能會擔心不能多賺一點 或者是還是要注意願意損失的時間價值部分. 市場上永遠都有機會, 少賺一點也不用煩心, 有賺也已不錯了.

 

之前的文章中我有分析了一下我覺得Russell 2000 Index(股票代號: RUT)的主要支撐在哪裡, 之後RUT又下探了這個支撐區間數次, 但是都止住了, 並沒有向下突破的發生, 今天在歐洲問題又浮出檯面, 銀行類股帶頭下跌的情形下, 又再次進入了這一個支撐, 這禮拜五是五月份選擇權的到期日, 所以這一周應該要多觀察市場對於這一個支撐的試探來作為六月份選擇權進場方向的依據. 我之前就有提醒大家, 這一個五月不太有可能在繼續持續1-4月的漲勢, 所以我個人之前也有分享我的部位多是做跌的bear call credit spread, 本週到期前應該都沒有問題, 希望我們的讀者也有注意到我們的提醒, 避開的這一次的調整.

唯一另外的是我之前分享的iShares Silver Trust(股票代號: SLV) sell naked put, 之前做了一個rolling, 今天又大跌來到了ATM. 我決定先不roll, 就讓他ITM在來觀察一下要不要進股. 大家要注意一點, 不是每一個sell naked put都可以這樣做的, 你必須要在進部位之前就想好你的sell naked put是要用來進股(大家可以多參考一下Tr. MoMo 之前分享的一些關於trading plan的文章), 或是只是賺premium的現金流, 這兩個策略在技術分析, 止損, 資金分配上都有很大的不同, 不可以混為一談. 如果你本來只是要sell naked put來賺現金流, 到了止損一定要出來(請參考我們的免費教學), 不可以虧損時又把他換成你想要進股的sell naked put來硬凹, 這樣的做法有一天會有致命的虧損, 大家一定要分清楚, 並小心使用!

 

 

Many of us know that American Express(股票代號: AXP) has been a long time holding in Berkshire Hathaway(股票代號: BRK-A, BRK-B)’s equity portfolio, but did you know the story behind the purchase?

In the 60′s, American Express through a third party verified the $60 million collateral used for a  loan in excess of $175 million(close to $2 Billion in nominal term) for the then salad oil king.  When the salad oil king defaulted on the loan, the creditor moved in to seize the tanks full of salad oil, but to their surprise the salad oil were never there.  American Express was ultimately found responsible for the creditor’s loss, as a result, the market hammered the share price of American Express, ruthlessly.

The then young Warren Buffett saw this, and reasoned that, the other business segments of American Express were fully intact, the beat down of the share price was excessive on an isolated event.  American Express had the ability to absorb such loss, there was no difference from the company paying out a one time dividend the amount of the total liability owed.  Buffett consequently began amassing the shares while the world was selling.  Needless to say what happend afterward.

As far as JP Morgan Chase(股票代號: JPM) is concerned, a long term investor should start paying attention and judge for yourself if a repeat of the salad oil scandal is about to surface.  The initially reported net loss was $800 milliion, and then it was later revealed the mark-to-market loss on that specific instrument was $2 Billion.  Some analysts estimated that by the time the synthetic credit derivative position is completely unwinded, the total loss would be as much as $4 Billion.  My view is, even if the net loss is equivalent to the bank’s total one year net income, which is $17 Billion plus, more than four times the estimated largest loss, and wiped out the bank’s earning for the entire year, it should not affect the rest of the business units, which have been extremely robust.  In my opinion, the core of the bank’s business is very strong, the market has short term memory, the bank’s reputation will prevail, and JPM remains one of the best banks, if not the best, in the entire world.  

So far the market has punished the company by pushing down the stock 10%, I would really start paying attentiion, if the margin of safety continues to expand much further.  If the company can make $17 billion dollars a year, without absolutely any kind of future growth, I would still value this company today at $170 Billion, which is already higher than the current market cap JPM is trading at.  Obviously, the regulator’s view of this incident will impact the implementation of Dodd Frank and especially the Volcker rule, this is going to negatively effect money center banks’ future propsects.  Nonetheless, when the market over zealously takes down an otherwise healthy company, it is time to unleash one’s ability to think with your head, and not with your heart attitude, and position yourself to benefit from market turmoil.

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摩根大通集團 JP Morgan Chase(股票代號: JPM) 在昨天股市收盤後揭露, 他們的衍生性金融商品投資虧損了20億美金, 另所有的投資人都非常震驚, 今天, 因此整個銀行類股通通走低。 這個新聞的後續發展非常值得所有的投資人關注, 避免這個事件持續延伸, JP Morgan 也聲明若市況持續波動, 他們本季有可能在有10億美金的損失, 不但有可能拖累金融市場, 甚至有可能影響全球股市。

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