** 早在約5個月前(2011/10/24)時就已經劃過的一個intra-trendline(一種趨勢線; 當時黃色)在我之後不少的SPX po文中都還有用到, 至今都還是很重要的趨勢線(在左圖是淺藍色), 希望粉絲們也一直都有注意到. 基本上, 在一路上都要適時的去修正, 不過看來這條的趨勢線有一定的重要性, 沒什麼去修正過, 所以當時在向上突破時, 大約的力道會如何也是事前先已經預測好的範圍.  最近向下回調的機率是不小, 不過基本上還沒有足夠訊號停止這一路走來的牛市. 個人看法: 目前來說牛市還在, 只是暫時慢下, 但近期很可能還是有不小的震盪.

** 如果選擇reverse trading strategy的人, 比較適合短線, 止損最好不要太鬆, 而止損出的機率也高. 若是選擇長期投資, 還是要等回調後再找好的入場點進多頭市場.

 

首先, 我們完成了系統更新, 非常抱歉當中造成的不便.

在昨天說到Targe(股票代號: TGT)的Double Top之後, 我有在多看了幾家, 有一些股票像是Costco(股票代號: COST)(見圖)也出現了類似的走勢. 回頭看一下大盤的S&P 500 Index(股票代號: SPX), 雖然有higher high, 但是也算是一個不太對稱的Double Top. 比較好一點的消息是, 今天雖然一度大跌, 但是不論是TGT, COST, 或是SPX, 在跌到Double Top的頸線(圖中咖啡色)時就收手回轉上漲. 雖然還太早斷定, 但是至少不是直接突破下跌的走勢. 手上有做多的朋友應該考慮減碼, 至少要注意頸線的支撐是否可以持續.

 

為了提供更好的服務和因應日漸增大的流量, 本站在明天會有一次系統的更新, 網站有可能有一些變慢或是網頁打不開的情況, 權傾天下會儘我們所能減少對讀者的影響, 如果你明天有不能開啟本站的狀況, 請耐心等候. 感謝你的支持與耐心.

 

今天大盤在許多數據都不是太好的情形下震盪走低, 三大指數都是下跌的, 盤中一度還下跌超過1%. 算是近期比較大一點的回調. S&P-500的50天均線附近有一些支撐, 大家可以觀察1355-1360附近是否可以有支撐出現.

可口可樂, 在突破上升Channel之後突破阻力達到歷史新高, 我之前有擔心反轉所以有勸大家保護獲利, 不過之後Coca Cola(股票代號: KO)選擇突破, 如果你仍持有KO在做covered call的可以繼續持有.

今天要特別提醒一下的是大型零售商Target(股票代號: TGT), 似乎出現了所謂double top的雙頂反轉訊號, 在雙頂的頸部(圖中的咖啡色線)是重要支撐, 如果突破, 可能有一波跌勢, 大家可以參考一下.

 

VelocityShares Daily 2X Vix ST ETN(股票代號: TVIX) is a double leveraged exchange traded note issued by Credit Suisse.  It is designed to track the popular vix index, but TVIX’s performance reflects twice the daily movement of the vix.  Last week, the ETN did not function properly, on a day when the vix increased, the ETN actually dropped precipitously.

Not all exchanged traded products are created equal.  Just because the product is exchange traded with seemingly good volume and liquidity, does not guarantee the validity of the product’s functionality.  With financial products becoming more and more complex, there are some bound to be malfunctioning because of technical difficulty.  Case and point, TVIX was trading at a premium to its fair value because Credit Suisse decided to stop issuing new notes due to some abitrary rule set forth in its prospectus, with supply and demand imbalanced, TVIX failed miserably at tracking its underlying index nor provided hedgers the protections they intended on that particular day.  Word of advice, most leveraged ETFs and ETNs are meant to be for short term hedge and speculation, and not suitable for long term hold. 

Education:  ETNs are notes issued by Big Banks and are only backed by the banks full faith, ability and willingness to pay up.  They are traded on the exchanges like ETFs, and ETNs tracked a certain index return like ETFs.  ETNs are debt instruments, and thus they do not own any underlying asset.  They do mature, and the issuing bank then pay a return that is linked to the index the ETN tracks.  Beware of exotic products, be supicious, and know your risk.

Buen camino on your financial education journey towards financial freedom.

 

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