今天跟大家介紹的書跟選擇權比較沒有很多的關係, 這本書算是”價值投資”的入門指南. 其實我本身對於價值投資並沒有深入的了解, 但是在做一些中長期投資的時候, 價值投資的一些觀念, 常常可以在選擇標地物的時候有所幫忙, Trader OK算是在價值投資上的專家, 如果你對這一類的投資有興趣, 我建議你可以仔細的閱讀他的文章.

說到價值投資, 簡單的來說, 就是想辦法買”物超所值“的股票. 說來簡單, 但是這問題就是出在”價值”上. 如何你才能夠精準的計算或是判斷一個股票(或是你可以說公司)真正的價值呢? 這不是一個簡單的問題, 又或者說這是一個無解的問題. 就如同買一台二手車, 如果你不是修車師父, 你如何知道一台2年新的BMW X5應該值多少錢呢? 就算是一樣年份同一款的車, 也會因為之前車主的保養, 車子的狀況等等因素影響的他的真正價值, 就算你是修車師父, 也不一定能夠精準的判斷. 所以, 簡而言之, 價值投資的問題就在”價值“兩個字上.

這一陣子常常被問到一個問題, APPLE(股票代號:AAPL), 股價在短短的四個月中, 從700多塊, 掉到了500多塊, 跌幅超過的25%, 但是APPLE的”價值”真的在短短的四個月跌了25%嗎?當然不可能, 但是, 另一個問題, 即使跌了這麼多, 今天520多塊的AAPL, 真的就”物超所值”了嗎? AAPL真的價值到底是多少呢? 也許有一些專家可以利用一些數據像是財報等等的, 再加上自己對APPLE公司的見解來”估算”出一些價值, 但是沒有誰趕打包票這估算出來的價值是真正的價值. 所以這個千古無解的問題, 我也沒有新的答案.

回頭談談這本書, 我建議所有對於價值投資的門外漢(像是我)都應該試著讀一讀. 第一, 他非常非常的簡單, 小學的數學就夠了, 第二, 就如他的書名:Little Book, 這本書非常的短, 只花你一天就可以讀完, 但是我相信你會有所心得. 我喜歡這本書的一個重點是, 作者基本上巧妙的避開了我上一段所論述的問題: 試圖計算真正的價值. 因為作者承認, 這連華爾街的專家都算不出來的問題, 我們這些平民百姓是不可能算出來的, 既然算不出來, 那就別算了. 那撇開了計算價值, 我們又要如何來”價值投資”呢? 江湖一點絕, 但是說出來還是值錢的, 那就是我們就別算絕對價值, 而去改算”相對價值“, 換句話說, 以之前AAPL的例子, 我們不去算AAPL到底值多少錢, 而是去比較在前1000大公司的股票中, AAPL是不是相對而言”物超所值”. 而書中提及的這個比較方法, 就是作者所謂的魔法方程式(Migic Formula). 這個方程式出奇的簡單, 基本上就是比較所有公司的”Earning Yield“和”Return on Capital“, 然後投資前30個有最高排名的公司. 當然, 作者在書中也有說明, 這樣的方法其實並不能真的保證你買的物超所值, 但是可以保證你在所有的蘋果中, 挑到相對比較好的. 再加上不是只投資少數幾家, 把資金押在前30名較好的資產中, 歷年來的表現是超過大盤的. 書中有對過去17年的數據用不同的角度來比較, 至於細節, 大家還是看書比較清楚.

更好的一點, 有人說我還是不知道怎麼算, 作者很貼心的開了個網站幫你算, 大家可以去這裡看看:Magic Formula Investing. 這網站是免費使用的, 但是你要先註冊. 再次回到剛剛AAPL的問題, 如果我用Min Market Cap 1B (1000M)來看, AAPL是在這top 30裡面的:

所以得出來的結論是, 我不知道520塊是不是合理的價位, 我也不知道APPLE的真正價值是多少塊一股, 但是我知道在Market Cap 1B以上的所有股票中, 他是”前三十名划算”的. 按照書中的數據, 長期, 再次強調是長期只投資前30划算的股票, 是可以有非常亮眼的表現. 那有人就問了, 這麼簡單, 那不是大家都去做了, 那還會有效嗎? 作者花了一些篇幅來告訴你, 為何即使那麼簡單, 大部分的人是做不到的, 一方面這裡篇幅有限, 一方面幫作者賣個關子, 大家還是仔細的讀這本書來找答案吧.

如果你可以再搭配之前我們教大家的covered call, 或是利用naked put來在更划算的價位進場, 這樣兩方面搭配之下, 是可以讓你有很好的回報的, 大家利用週末的時間, 讀讀這本小小的指南吧!

書的連結:
The Little Book That Still Beats the Market (Little Books. Big Profits)

 
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Recently I read an article about the high flying Real Estate price in Hong Kong, and one of the conclusions was as a result, in spite of this being the year of the DRAGON, the birth rate this year so far has been lagging behind by 5.6% than same time last year, which is unusual and in contrast to the previous years of the dragon, which saw a significant increase in birth rate.

The article offered a simple explanation, the direct linking of the high real estate price and low birth rate has reminded me of the idea of “correlation vs. causality, and how incentive matters” from the books and movie, Freakonomics; and Superfreakonomics.

The ideas entail are mind blowing, and they are extremely interesting unlike the dreaded discipline of Economics, the topics from the books and the DVD are great fun and easy to understand for all people and I ESPECIALLY recommend them to NEW PARENTS.  The movie explores many interesting daily phenomena like, what really makes a GOOD PARENT? and how an Economist Potty Train his baby girl.

Please take a minute to view some of the videos, and I bet you will be surprised by some of the outcomes.

 

Forming a target list

After a review of my investing plan, I went back and revisited Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway(股票代號: BRK-A; BRK-B) business acquisition criteria, that help shaped the basis of my investment criteria.  The fact that we at tradeoptions4living.com here, on many occasions, advocate traders and investors to generate a list of investment/trading ideas that one should stick to and follow regularly, the criteria that I am going into detail here can help formed your watchlist.

The following is the acquisition criteria that has been in place at Berkshire Hathaway for a long time, it is “succinct and simple”.  The difference between investing and trading is that, investing requires a very long horizon, patience, and does not usually require week in and week out getting in and out of positions.  The idea is to identify excellent businesses that are temporarily trading at depressed market quotational price, preferably much lower than its intrinsic value, as calculated based on its high certainty future cashflows discounted back to the present with an appropriate discount rate.

The essence of trading is basically the pure capturing of the positive market quotational differences by identifying and following some sort of trends.  Underlying businesses characteristics are of little use relative to the issue’s market price behavior.  Trend analysis are usually achieved by technical analysis, which is useful in identifying short term prominent trends, supports and resistances.  The time frame for trading is usually short, from fraction of a second to weeks or months.  Therefore, options(short and especially long when done properly) are excellent vehicle for short term trading because of the capital requires(leverage).

Catalysts are very important in affecting a significant market quotational change.  Investment at depressed price requires catalysts, also known as the generosity and subsequent agreement of the masses to bring prices back to the appropriate level.  It is similar with trading in this regards that most traders are buying or shorting in anticipation of some catalysts kicking in to realize the significant price  change, it’s just that technical analysts hope to shorten the time horizon with their fantastic tools.  More importantly, it is the “right catalyst” that propel a stock price to behave the way traders expected them to behave.  In this case, that’s why it is important for traders to “stop loss” if the catalyst(s) were wrong or fail to stimulate the price the way the traders envisioned from their technical analysis.  On a more depressing note, the biggest whales such as Buffett, Icahn, Soros and big name fund managers can provide their own catalysts simply because they can make a lot of noises and are watched and followed religiously, while you and I, until we become whales, are at the mercy of others seeing what we saw in an issue.  Please don’t forget about tradeoptions4living when any of you become a whale.

While this idea is not advocated by most financial planner and/or money manager, because investing(the Warren Buffett fundamental/value way) is different from speculation, legendary investor Warren Buffett is very comfortable putting the majority of his fund in one or a few companies.  That is because he does not put a time line in his investments, he simply sits and waits, and lets the price runs its course.  The duration is usually much longer than what traders have in mind, but because he purchased at a price so good that the annual return of his investments usually outperform the broadmarket index.  Long term value investors, after doing their homeworks, do not stop loss simply because of daily market quotation loss, or sell because of a quick gain.  They incorporate the criteria I am detailing here to ensure the investments, or more clearly, the underlying businesses, perform above average for a very long time with high return on capital.  Make sure you do not mix trading with investing by not stopping loss with your long options.  Long options lose time value everyday, and if the anticipated price movement do not occur within your “time frame”, or the movement go against your expectation, one must stop loss.  Because intelligent investing is to avoid permanent capital loss, trading long options by definition is not investing buffett style(due to time value degradation), you must exercise cautions when determining what portion of your capital you should commit for long options speculation.


BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
ACQUISITION CRITERIA

We are eager to hear from principals or their representatives about businesses that meet all of the following criteria:
(1) Large purchases (at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units),
(2) Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),
(3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
(4) Management in place (we can’t supply it),
(5) Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
(6) An offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

The larger the company, the greater will be our interest: We would like to make an acquisition in the $5-20 billion range.

Criteria #2 is what defines an excellent business.  The crust of investing is defined at Berkshire Hathaway, the transfer of purchasing power to others now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power-after taxes have been paid on nominal gain- in the future.

Consistent earning power-A trait only the very best businesses with a certain moat or moats protecting them from competition can demonstrate consistently, simply because in economics above average return on capital attracts competitions, and this tends to reduce the return back to around average.  The very best businesses have characteristics either tangible and/or intangible that help them overcome their competitions.

The fact that future projection is of no interest to Buffett demonstrates the idea that his style on investing only allow this whale to swim in established businesses with great business models, and criteria #5 only stipulate that the business is easy to understand.

Criteria #3 is the definition of good return.  During good time, debt tends to magnify the return earned on equity capital, but debt also enhance the inherent business financial risk.  Do not be fooled by above average return utilizing a large amount of debt, one must check to see if this is a common characteristics among its industry, but even then, beware of high leverage as when the tide of good time is gone, you don’t want to be revealed as swimming naked.

Criteria #5 is very important for the average long term investors.  A simple business that does not require constant innovation can usually operate with lesser working capital than technology intensive businesses.  Or simply put, boring simple business protected by some form of moats that are easy to understand allows long term investor to assess, with relative ease, the long term performance of this business.  This resonates with the idea of circle of competence.  The average joe has a small circle of competence meaning they can understand the simplest businesses the best.  As your investing and business intelligence increase, one can increase his or her circle of competence.  For example, an engineer may know why the technologies at certain high tech firms help contributed to their dominance, and how these scenarios of market dominance may evolve, such idea of business projection may be out of the scope of the average joe but crucial in determining the business future if one can decipher such complications.

Master these concepts, and you are on your way to enhance the quality of the business names you will be following, and actually understand what makes you want to follow these names.

 


又到了週末, 今天來替大家介紹一本我覺得還不錯的書, 雖然已經交易了一些年頭了, 但是我還是會三不五時的買一些書來看, 一方面是可以更新一下知識, 另一方面俗話說的好, 三人行必有我師, 就算一本書你99%本來就知道, 只要裡面有一頁對你有所幫助或啟發, 就非常值得了. 其實這本書我之前就讀過, 但是最近有一些讀者問我有沒有更多的書推薦, 所以就拿出來複習了一下, 實在覺得值得推薦給大家.

不要被他書名”Beginner”給騙了, 我個人覺得如果你是剛剛開始學習選擇權, 看懂有一定的難度, 原因是這本書的編排比較像是工具書, 每一個章節都不長, 直接講述重點, 再加上一些例子, 如果你沒有一點點的基礎, 可能會覺得跳的太快, 但是如果你已經有一點的基礎, 會覺得本書非常精簡, 甚至可以常常拿他來複習一下自己對選擇權的知識, 所以我比較推薦給已經小有基礎而還想要進一步了解的人.

除了精簡扼要, 本書還有一點我非常喜歡, 我常常用這一點來給一本書評分, 也就是書中有沒有作者自身的一些獨到看法或是經驗分享. 如果一本書只是把選擇權的理論講一遍, 在我看來的價值不大. 這一本書在這一方面做的非常好. 舉個例子來說, 一般的人都說Covered Call 風險非常低, Sell naked Call/Put風險極高, 本書有一個章節, 仔細的告訴你事實上Covered Call和Sell Naked Put的風險是一樣的, 重點不是策略本身, 而是你的用法. 這跟我之前的一些文章說的不謀而合, 風險管理和資金的分配才是重點, 策略本身並沒有”風險大小”的區別, 一般人之所以認為風險大, 只是因為沒有足夠而深入的了解, 如果你研究一下Covered Call和Sell Naked Put的P/L圖, 你就會知道為何作者會認為他們是一樣的東西(事實上就長的一樣).

另一個例子是Buy Strangle/Straddle的部分, 一般人都覺得這一個策略很好用, 有限的風險, 無限的回報, 而且不管股價往那跑都賺錢, 本書作者告訴你, Buy Strangle/Straddle是最難獲利的策略之一, 是一種標準的看起來好用實際上很難的策略, 不過他也建議了哪一些股價範圍的股票比較適合做Buy Strangle/Straddle. 也幫讀者揭開了隱含波動率(IV)神秘的面紗, 讓大家了解IV對於Buy Strangle/Straddle的巨大影響.

書裡還有章節有教大家如何利用選擇選來修復已經擁有的股票, 或是增加獲利, 如果你只是把選擇權當作你做股票的工具, 這些章節也會對你有很多的幫助.

本書章節上有打星星的是比較進階一些的章節, 裡面就會分享很多作者獨到的交易經驗和想法, 我在這裡分享的只是兩個小例子. 如果你對選擇權已經有一些基本的知識, 藉由本書作者的經驗分享和獨到見解一定可幫助你在實際應用上更上一層樓. 雖然說讀萬卷書不如行萬里路, 但要是這萬里路跟交易一樣凶險而充滿陷阱, 我還是建議大家在行萬里路之前, 還是先讀萬卷書來充分準備一下吧.

我看的是原文書, Amazon 或是台灣的博客來書店都有賣, 我不太清楚有沒有中文翻譯本, 如果有讀者知道, 跟大家分享一下吧.

 

為了滿足廣大讀者的要求, 並且一秉權傾天下長久以所來推崇的理念, 權傾天下的交易分析師一直以來毫無保留的分享自己對美股市場的觀點和看法, 希望利用選擇權靈活的策略幫助讀者邁向財富自由的大道。  近期, 越來越多讀者希望我們推出類似用教材的方式, 幫助大家更容易融會貫通複雜的選擇權策略。   所以, 自即日起, 我們決定推出第一套的免費教學–[高勝率現金流選擇權秘笈] , 同時間我們也將推出我們的電子報, 好讓我們更容易在有好的文章或者是重要事件發生時, 與你們一同分享。
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