這“不是”一本有關投資交易的書,是一本和做事態度有關的書。我不知道是不是每一個職業都要有如此的心態,但我確定想要在“投資 及 交易”這個領域裡有好的成果和長久的成功,這本書所提及的“專業”是必要的。在金融市埸裡,我們每天面對的對手,之前文章有提過;沒有“至少”有這樣的做法及態度,在股票市場內的成功機率可以說是幾乎看不到。

去學習培養出正確的投資態度遠比學習好的交易技術知識難得多,但也重要得多。有一時當下好的技術卻沒好的態度來面對整體的事業生涯(career)發展,被淘汰只是早晚的事。

Trade for living是交易為生,指得是一個“職業”,和大部分其他的工作一樣都是賺錢為生,上班為生,教書為生,網拍為生,寫書為生,程式設計為生,賣早餐為生,做會計為生,做律師為生 等。這還不能算是“專業”,更不到“專家”。要做成一個“職業”並不簡單,但真正艱難的部分是從有“專業”的態度才真正開始;而面對未來的市場,有此態度是你的唯一生存之道。< 謀謀和大前研一老師深有同感。(I can’t agree more with Kenichi Ohmae.) >

 

During the past week, Apple(股票代號: AAPL) announced its blockbuster earning, $8.8 billion($9.32/share) vs. $7.31 billion($7.79/share) same period a year ago, a whooping 20% jump.  However, it was below the consensus street expectation of $10.38/share on $37.23 billion in revenue.

As a fundamental analyst, I had an extremely bullish view on Apple’s business, and I wanted to participate in this earning.  I bought September calls a few weeks ago in anticipation of the intensifying IV, and apple’s tradition of earning beat.  My basis were that, the volatility increases should balance out the time decay of an option expiring in about 70 or so days.  News from the media such as the lukewarm launch of the new iPad for China’s apple store caused me to hypothesis that a lot of the Q3 sales of iPad had already been pushed up to Q2, and the quarter’s iPad sales result could be beyond expectation.  Moreover, the expectation of a mini iPad, Apple smart TV, and the new iPhone drove me to be extremely bullish on the stock.

Man, was I wrong, big time.

Mistake #1, I ventured into an unfamiliar territory without the help of technical analysis, I entered the trade when the stock price was peaking at around 620-ish.

Mistake #2, when the stock retracted, and when my loss reached 30%, I did not cut my losses as required by the rule, hoping that it was only temporary.

Mistake #3, I “gambled” and waited for the earning announcement, hoping that my bet would turn out to be right.  IV completely deflated after earning, the stock went down 5%.  My Calls went down from $32 down to about $6.  A loss representing of at least 80%.

Mistake #4, I stuck to my gun of believing in the value of apple I derived through fundamental analysis, but I used the wrong tools, I mixed investing with trading, a deadly combination, a mistake I have made before.

Mistake #5, don’t get emotional, if you are upset, don’t trade, because it can very well turn into a dead end gambling bet.  Don’t gamble money you cannot afford to gamble.

There are probably many more mistakes, but it hurts to write this article and be reminded of all the poor judgement I made.  It is however, necessary and imperative, to face my own demon, my failure, be truthful to myself, and not to believe that I am better than I actually am.  Don’t hide from it, must face it head on.

My dear fellow traders, stick to your trading plan, it takes courage to stop loss, it takes discipline to follow through with your stop loss protocol, it takes guts to admit you are wrong before it is too late.  I hope my painful sharing can serve as a constant reminder to all of you.

 

下錯了單,逃避,還去摘櫻桃玩. 真是冥頑不靈啊.

** 臉書Facebook(股票代號: FB), 差一點就 臉”輸” 嘍. 戰場上有兵家大忌, 交易場上也有交易大忌啊!  約兩星期前, 所有人都在東問西問facebook如何如何, 新聞上,朋友間也一堆亂七八糟的談論. 在正常(平時)的情形下, 我都是吃吃啦, 喝喝啦, 左耳進右耳出, 出去聞逛啦, 做做yoga啦, 喝喝sake啦, 看看Naruto(火影忍者), One Piece(海賊王)啦, 反正天下大事都不干我的事;  我只管做好trading plan, 分析, 下單, 監控, 膁錢, 生活, 健康, 開心 即可.  可是這一次, 犯下了交易的滔天大罪, 所以必須認錯, 對著自己的trading plan認錯. 我在臉書一切歷史數據都還不足夠的情形下(包括 financial history and price history), 卻也衝動的進了一個交易. 當時想說, 大家都這麼熱烈, 輸贏好像也不重要, 參與一下也好玩; 唉, 結果在短短分析不到半個小時內, 就click了一個order, 在order一出的那一剎那間就有點後悔了, 但卻也不想出來……  真是一錯再錯啊…….

** 我在$26的地方賣出了點賣權, 量很少, 畢竟打從心底知道, 這不叫交易, 叫遊戲. 玩遊戲, 是花錢的, 不是用來賺錢的, 所以也不會放多. 運氣好, 之後小漲, 權利金很快拿到, 15天小膁了USD$400多結束. 回頭看看這真是一個衝動不經大腦的決定啊. Trading plan中的賞善罰惡是很重要的. 罰自己3天不能看盤, 超級悶, 超級無聊(哈, 是以前從另一個professional trader學來的罰法, 很特別但有用).

** 是的, 最後運氣是不錯(平時還是得多做善事,haha), 天上掉下來的錢,  撿到了一點得感激一下.  可是交易世界, 不是這麼work的. 膁錢也可以是錯, 輸錢也可以是對. 對專業交易師來說, 對錯和賺輸無太大干係(因為基本上都能生活了吧), 和能不能控制住自己去硬性執行交易守則(trading plan)才是重點; 如果這次的小贏給了你錯誤觀念, 那帶來的只會是未來的致命大賠; 這就是要非常小心注意卻少有人知的交易大忌之一.

** 再多給一個 technique, “認錯”在做trading中很重要, 可以說很可能是最重要; 但卻很難, 極度難, 非常難; 因為只是嘴上表面說的並不重要, 是打從心中是否真的明白看到錯而丟去pride去真的承認, 之後才能真的改之, 這才是難的部分, 而這部分卻只有你自己內心才知道. 要分清是 運氣中還是計劃中; 此次獲利, 和知識, 分析, 專業一點都沒關(太不專業了), 是個純粹運氣中, 要特別小心.

 

………… 不知,還得繼續觀察。

** 以目前的型態分析來看,在還沒突破向下之前,在圖中淺黃線的部分是一個多方者需要respect和注意的target(獲利目標)。
** 當然也有可能向下突破,那就風險控管好就好; 到時候的趨勢很可能會變化,那所有獲利目標等等的setup都會改變,就不要一直鎖死在之前的獲利目標,要重新分析。

 

Let’s take a quick look at two big box retail chains whose symbols are only off by one letter, but their financial pictures couldn’t be further apart.  Retailing is a tough business, kudos to those that continue to survive and blossom.

As a long term value investor, preservation of capital is probably the most important issue one should address when it comes to deploying your money on certain stocks for a long haul.  Ask yourself the question why a company will continue to exist for the next 10, 15 or 25 years.  Do your due diligence before hand, buy with a margin of safety, and utilize the proper options strategy to hedge your risk, then you will be able to sleep more soundly at night, and not worry about which way the market turns.

(股票代號: BBY)- Best Buy; (股票代號: BBBY)- Bed Bath and Beyond

Best buy recently reported a loss in the most recent quarter.  It is a great place for loitering, playing with, and trying out new electronic gadgets.  I thank them for their generosity of supporting the landlords with long term huge square footage lease, and without hesitation, shamelessly whip out my mobile device and put in an online order of that device I just played with, on AMAZON.COM.  As a reward for my patience of delayed gratification, I receive, very often, better pricing, no sales tax, and free shipping.  What more can you ask for as a price conscious consumer?  Service?  I think it’s overrated in this particular situation.  No disrespect to Bestbuy, but do you remember Circuit City, the good guys, CompUSA, and the smaller RadioShack(Déjà vu to the new Bestbuy smaller store concept), that have all been put into oblivion.

Bed Bath and Beyond is a specialty retailer of everything bed, bath, kitchen and home decor.  However unexciting this business sounds, it continues to deliver very good profit margin, and above average return on equity with little or no debt.  I cannot think of a strong reason why this simple business can’t be duplicated and knocked over.  I think the reason for its good performance is largely due to the absence of a yet clearly dominating low-cost competing counterpart that would drive BBBY sales into the ground.  The emergence of such online retailer, in my humble opinion, is perhaps only a matter of time, and not if.  Nevertheless, in the mean time, if Walmart and Target can’t seem to put a dent into its fortress-like balance sheet, perhaps this is a retailer that may be worth a little bit more digging into.

My favorite retailers(or to take a page out of the Bill Gross sound bites, the cleanest of the dirty shirts):  Walmart; Target; Amazon.com, and various dollar stores, but then this will be a story for another day.  No trading recommendation offered at this time for any of the aforementioned companies.

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